Betting Tom Brady’s successor in New England (Hint: not Jameis Winston)
Would you believe that the My Bookie sportsbook has been reduced to taking bets on Belarusian soccer matches and, even more insanely, on EA Sports’ 2K20-simulated “NBA” games? NFLbets thinks we can speak for us all when we say “Fuck this coronavirus!” (But not literally. That would certainly make you super sick and/or virulent.!
Happily, not all rational bets are off during this international quarantine season. The move of GOAT QB Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has already allowed some prescient NFL bettors to kinda sorta cash in – though most sportsbooks aren’t paying out on their variant of the “Which Team will Tom Brady Play For in 2020” proposition bet until he literally takes a snap on opening day.
And in the wake of Brady’s departure, My Bookie brings us the related prop “Next Starting Quarterback for the New England Patriots”, which features some surprisingly good value – and one option with surprisingly short odds. The table looks as follows:
Jarrett Stridham: +155
Cam Newton: +200
Andy Dalton: +500
Jameis Winston: +600
Derek Carr: 14/1
Tua Tagovailoa: 25/1
Joe Flacco: 28/1
Cody Kessler: 28/1
You see what we’re saying: Most of these lines are outrageous, the 2/1 on Cam Newton (down from 10/1 on opening) is utterly thought-provoking, and the smart money is probably on Jarrett Stridham at +155 and certain to shorten daily.
The rest can be eliminated rather easily: Covering Joe Flacco or Cody Kessler at 28/1 it throwing money away. Flacco was cut by the Denver Broncos after a 2-6 record as a starter while throwing just 6 touchdown passes against five interceptions – and a huge 26 sacks taken. As a starter at very least, he’s done, folks. Kessler? Um, no.
Tua Tagovailoa at 25/1 is certainly intriguing from either the NFL bettor’s or fan’s perspective, but Truth is that the only way this happens is for medical reports to scare enough teams off to fall to Belichick & Co. at no. 23. Unlikely, and perhaps even more unlikely is the willingness for any but the most desperate of teams dealing with the Patriots after untold fleecings perpetuated by their front office. On the other hand, Washington’s at no. 2 and the New York Giants sit at no. 4, so…
Derek Carr at 14/1 would make gobs more sense if the Las Vegas Raiders had somehow pulled off the Brady signing. Now, Chucky Gruden may be deluded enough to think he can work his “quarterback whisperer” juju on Marcus Mariota, but here’s to thinking that Carr’s going nowhere. And NFLbets would still guess that Carr is still probably the safest bet in a “Staring Quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders on Opening Day 2020” prop as well.
Throw away any consideration of Jameis Winston at 6/1, too. While Winston-to-New England certainly makes a great storyline and an intriguing reclamation project for Belichick, there is this:
Surely you’ll agree that odds on Winston now look outlandish. (Yeah, yeah, don’t call me Shirley…)
NFLbets has never understood this taken-for-granted attitude toward the Patriots signing Andy Dalton (at 5/1), either. After all, will the Cincinnati Bengals necessarily rid themselves of The Red Rifle (lolz) to make way for the incoming Dominant Force in the Universe, Joe Burrow, immediately? Particularly if in a rebuilding year, why would the Bengals front office throw Burrow out there behind a tissue-paper line and little on offense beyond A.C. Green to work with? The key to a Bengals deal
Jarrett Stridham at +155 is an excellent pick for now. NFLbets believes that if Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft agree on anything, it’s that they’ll be having none of that tanking or rebuilding bullshit. The Patriots are already entering the season with the NFL’s best defense and a top-10 offensive line. True enough, they’re poor on talent at WR and TE, but sticking with Stridham’s rookie contract would allow New England to trade for proper talent at those sports – again, if anyone want to deal with the Pats.
And then there’s Cam Newton at 2/1. In short, WFT is up with this? Okay, sure, both the NFL Network and CBS Sports have run high-profile items about the possibility in recent days, but NFLbets would sure like to find out why – unless it’s merely process of elimination – Cam’s drawing so much action in this prop. Heck, maybe with such a lack of sports, sports news outlets feel compelled to run away with “Wouldn’t It Be Great” storylines; this, however, is no justification for losing moneys.
In the end, then, we’d advise covering Jarrett Stridham and, if you really believe Newton to New England could happen, you can hedge Stridham with Newton in a ratio of 2:1 and still come out ahead.
– written by Os Davis