Geez, when was the last time the promise of a former vice president on the campaign trail shifted betting markets? During Sunday night’s mano e mano debate, Joe Biden made easy headlines by promising to take on a woman as VP when should he get the party’s nomination for POTUS in the 2020 general election. And so today’s odds table in the “US Presidential Election 2020 – Democratic VP Nominee” proposition bet shows significant changes over that going into the weekend.
The table lots like so.
Kamala Harris: +225 (+200)
Amy Klobuchar: +300 (+300)
Stacey Abrams: +350 (+800)
Elizabeth Warren: 12/1 (12/1)
Michelle Obama: 16/1 (30/1)
Gretchen Whitmer: 18/1 (25/1)
Hillary Clinton: 20/1 (16/1)
All male possibilities are going off at the 22/1 odds posted by some oddsmakers for Julian Castro or longer. No matter: Biden’s well-honed political propensity for over-promising aside, we’ll assume these seven names represent Joe’s must likely pairings. All in all, this odds table is one interesting list of good value bets and sucker bets.
The truth is that three names on this list have been considerable viable Veep choices since the race’s beginning, regardless of candidate heading up the ticket: Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams and Gretchen Whitmer. Three of the remaining four may be eliminated on pragmatic grounds: The like-minded Klobuchar brings nothing to Biden’s chances except Minnesota, which the Dems win regardless. Elizabeth Warren likewise demonstrated limited appeal and she represents a state that consistently goes Democratic. Michelle Obama? Come on. She’ll be stumping for the Democratic nominee regardless.
From among those which we consider the best bets, Harris may be the safe choice. Sure, some may remember her as “that girl” who was a victim of Biden’s backward thinking on bussing and integration, but the Democratic Party’s tendency to sink itself sees no bounds. Parlaying Kamala with a Trump victory in the general election sounds pretty good if you can get it…
On the off-chance the Democratic brain trust goes through a bout of sanity but still wants a tough-on-crime former prosecutor, Gretchen Whitmer at 18/1 is a great pick. She took the Michigan governorship in 2018 after eight years of GOP rule and following several terms in the state senate; she’s known as a savvy politician who’s big on diversity issues. Unfortunately, name recognition is against her – and not just with Biden, who never seems able to remember…
Stacey Abrams, who famously lost the race for Georgia’s governorship by dint of election-roll purging and other voter suppression techniques, certainly should have been drawing shorter lines from last winter. Indeed, Biden’s declaration cut Abrams’s odds by more than half. The smart money is probably here – even as a hedge against betting on Harris – and this line won’t be getting much shorter.
Then there’s Hillary Clinton. Now you’d think that losing to Barack Obama, losing to Bernie Sanders and losing to Donald Trump would be enough to convince the Democrats that party leaders have greatly overestimated Hillz’s electability or straight-up likeability. The number of supposedly “electable” candidates from both sides who have either been utterly smoked (Dukakis in 1988, McCain in 2008) or “upset” in easily winnable elections (Gore in 2000 and of course Hillary in 2016).
And that’s the heart of the matter, isn’t it? The inevitability of Biden’s nomination only confirms the suspicion that Democratic Party leadership hasn’t learned a thing since the hacks were trying to circumvent Jimmy Carter’s campaign in 1976. Clintonians still hold much sway in the party – evidenced by the recent ascension of Hillary acolyte Tom Parez to the party chairman position following the 2016 debacle – and Hillary is just the sort of power addict that would subvert the ticket’s chance for a win for one more futile shot at the golden ring of ego.
Clinton as the Democratic Party’s VP pick might be a nightmare to Trumpophobes and progressives, but for the bettors is a potentially seriously lucrative opportunity at 20/1. Sometimes you’ve got to search for that silver lining…
– written by Os Davis
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