NFL Week 4 ATS results: Big wins for Bengals, Bills, chaos and disorder

07 October 2020

In week 4, Covid-19 officially reared its virulent head in the 2020 NFL season after hanging over everything for the entirety thus far. At least coronavirus is making NFL betting a little simpler by removing homefield advantage even further out of the equation that in the 2010s: Home teams went 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS last week, dragging homers down to 31-31-1 SU (no really) and 29-34 ATS on the season. Plus, for the first time in forever, the over didn’t dominate the over/under lines, going 7-7-1.

Compared to the rest of the weeks in this NFL season – such as it could well be – week 4 may be the last normalcy we see in ’20. Hope we can refund all those Super Bowl preseason props…

The following are the results for the week 4 games of the 2020 NFL season, adjusted for the point spread. Game results listed in italics are those for which the SU and ATS result differed.

Covid 19, Tennessee Titans 0. The 2020 NFL season was build on the unsteady foundation of NFL fans’ willing delusion and the desperation of players to squeeze out every playing minute of a short professional career. After news of a coronavirus outbreak among Titans players and staff last week, that shaky structure is positively tremulous.

As in Major League Baseball, the Titans’ Covid cases (and soon thereafter the Patriots’) forced the league to first postpone until later in the week, then in the season, the team’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In week 5, Bills-Titans, Raiders-Chiefs, Dolphins-49ers, Broncos-Patriots are in doubt. Should the rollover effect of contagion from one team to their opposition continue, all games will be cancelled by week 8.

So, NFLbets supposes, enjoy it while it lasts!

Denver Broncos 37 at New York Jets 27. You can tell the under is particularly beleaguered in 2020 when the Broncos trot out a third-string quarterback and the Jets steadfastly remain the Jets, yet the cellar-dwellers still put together 65 points.

Indianapolis Colts 15½ at Chicago Bears 11. Though, on the other hand, Colts-Bears was a classic destined-to-go-under game. And now that Nick Foles has at least temporarily ran out of magic dust, we might yet see many more unders from these two in 2020.

Philadelphia Eagles 25 at San Francisco 49ers 11½
Cleveland Browns 49 at Dallas Cowboys 34½
New York Giants 9 at Los Angeles Rams 3½
Washington FT 17, Baltimore Ravens 16½. Just in case you’re craving the “old normal” (That would be the opposite of the “new normal”, right?), go ahead and follow the NFC East for the rest of the season. Right now, Philadelphia’s weakass tie to Cincinnati in week 3 has them at 1-2-1 SU and in first place in the division.

NFL bettors, on the other hand, may enjoy betting against the NFC East until the interdivisional games hit the schedule: The NFC East combined, despite the three ATS wins last week, is still a combined 5-11 ATS against the league’s other 28 teams, and the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS all by their lonesomes. The NFL can’t expand the playoffs enough for this division, it seems…

Cincinnati Bengals 32, Jacksonville Jaguars 25. Joe Burrow, who’s beginning to resemble a one-man show in Cincinnati, finally got his first NFL win with the Bengals – and the expression “a W’s a W” has never been truer.

Carolina Panthers 31, Arizona Cardinals 18. Teddy Bridgewater for MVP!

Seattle Seahawks 26½ at Miami Dolphins 23. Ever since the scintallating Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, NFLbets fears overrating the Seahawks. Nevertheless, we always end up betting them to our own detriment – this was particularly egregious in 2019, when Seattle went 7-10-1 ATS in all games, including a still-baffling 4-4 SU/2-6 ATS at home. For the nonce, however, there appears to be no overrating these Seahawks.

Minnesota Vikings 31 at Houston Texans 19½
Green Bay Packers 25, Atlanta Falcons 16
New Orleans Saints 32 at Detroit Lions 29. Bill O’Brien became the first coaching casualty of the NFL season after another limp Texans loss. Meanwhile, fans of the Lions, Falcons and Jets are wondering, “What doesn’t O’Brien have that our coach does…?”

“Los Angeles” Chargers 31 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30½. Four games into the season and Tampa Bay Tom Brady finally put in a decent showing – especially if you’re willing to overlook the pick-six. The hype should be on the border of unbearable for this week’s game at Chicago, but the team’s first true test is in week 6 when they meet Green Bay.

Buffalo Bills 27 at Las Vegas Raiders 23. Look, all the bandwagoneering the Bills are experiencing is great and all, and NFLbets seeks not to disparage the good vibes. Though we just can’t stop thinking that the Bills are going to get the chance to become the first franchise to go 0-5 in Super Bowls. Especially if we bet on them…

Kansas City Chiefs 15½, New England Patriots 10. Goddamn it, where was the reporter asking Bill Belichick whether a field goal at the end of the first half would have changed the complexion of the game for the Patriots? Who wouldn’t have paid good money for that reaction?