Tuesday Night Football – what a concept! Before this week, a total of one Tuesday night game has ever been played: That was in 2010, when a December snowstorm cancelled a Sunday game in Philadelphia between the Eagles and Vikings, with the game subsequently rescheduled for the Tuesday night following.
But what else would you expect from 2020?
Adding a level of difficulty to the betting equation for this game is the surprise bye week given to the Tennessee Titans thanks to coronavirus. The relevant stat in just a situation is, naturally, useless: All-time, teams getting the Covid bye are 1-0 thus far with the Steelers’ win over the Eagles on Sunday.
On the other hand, NFLbets has been waiting to wager on a 2020 Titans game since they squeaked past the Minnesota Vikings 31-30 in week 3 to increase their SU record to 3-0 and their ATS record to 0-3. Whereas we weren’t especially enthusiastic about having to consider their odds against Pittsburgh (who would have entered a week 4 game against the Titans at 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS), but with the Buffalo Bills coming to town? We’re in.
Giving the outlier marks set by the Titans thus far, NFLbets is reverse-engineering our bets on
The bet we’ve been waiting to make for two weeks is a crossover. Based simply on trends – and with the unknowns that covidball adds to the situation, we’re sticking with basic football-betting factors – we’re starting with the advice to take the Tennessee Titans +4 and take the Buffalo Bills ML. Unfortunately, most sportsbooks disallow parlaying a point spread and ML bet on the same game, and payouts on these bets are just -115 and -165, respectively.
Luckily, My Bookie has an out: A proposition offering called “Bills vs Titans – Game Result.” The table on this prop looks like so:
• Bills by 6 or more: +100
• Titans by 6 or more: +260
• Any other result: +200
You see where we’re going with this. If NFLbets could parlay Titans +4 and Bills ML, the payout would be +200. If you take “Any other result” in the “Bills vs Titans – Game Result” prop, not only do you get the same odds, you’ve also gotten the Titans an extra 1½ points and you’re hedging against the Bills ML bet. In fact, as long as the game stays within 5 points, this 3-bet combination wins a profit.
--written by Os Davis
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