This week's Thursday Night Football game looks like easy pickings at first glance: The Carolina Panthers 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS mark belies what has been a highly competitive team that has stayed competeitive in every game -- and the Falcons were the sole Panthers opponent thus far to currently have a sub-.500 record.
The Falcons are, to date, the Bizarro Panthers. While Carolina reformed their coaching staff and roster to start 2020 in a presumed rebuilding effort, Atlanta stuck to the status quo and in preseason were considered by some to be playoff contenders. Post-firing of head coach and GM, they're 1-1 SU/ATS as Todd Gurley found a whole new way to blow a win.
So perhaps only overthinking can kill betting profitably on…
Atlanta Falcons +1½ at Carolina Panthers
The trends on betting Thursday Night Football tends to go in favor of the chalk – but only barely.
Home teams have typically enjoyed the “advantages” of the opposition’s short week on TNF, going for marks of 53-30 SU and 45-35-3 ATS. The SU record translates to a winning percentage of .639, as opposed to the typical home team’s success rate of about .575 in an NFL season. In what is essentially a “pick ’em” game, SU stats are significant.
Meanwhile, if seeking proof that bookmakers know their business well, consider that favorites are just 41-38-3 ATS on TNF during the aforementioned timespan and are on a 17-18-1 ATS “run” since 2018. What’s more, favorites in games with point spreads of fewer than 7 points are incredibly just 24-31-2 ATS.
Finally, some might be tempted to factor in click-worthy stats like “Carolina is 2-8 all-time on Thursday Night Football”, but NFL bets certainly wouldn’t advise it. Matt Ryan’s 6-6 SU mark at Carolina is slightly more useful, but we’re just not into overthinking this one. The Panthers are the better team right now and the Falcons are coming to them on a short week; we’ll go with the team on the rise: Take the Carolina Panthers -1½ vs Atlanta.
NFLbets’ current record in 2020: 10-10-2.
– written by Os Davis
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