For some reason, NFLbets is irrationally excited about NFL week 10 betting. On Thursday Night Football, we didn’t quite nail all our picks – the Colts scored one FG too many to hit the under – and more solid opportunities are seemingly rife in point spread betting alone. For summary’s sake, we’ve recommending three best bets and an upset special of the week, of The Year, of The Millenium and FOR ALL-TIME…
Sorry, we’re excited. Excited to cash in on…
Before even getting into the numbers, it’s clear that the Vikings have two major advantages:
• By dint of the in-division Bears’ 5-4 SU record, this game is a must-win for the more talented Vikings; and
• speaking of talent, the Vikings are bringing Batman and Robin (alter egos Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattiso) in the running game, two guys who have amassed a combined 1,414 total yards and 14 touchdowns for a per-game average of 176.8 yards and more than 1½ TDs.
Fair enough, the Bears are no jokers on defense: Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has the Chicago D ranked 4th overall and 7th against the run. Even so, Minnesota’s dynamic duo hardly need a monstrous performance with Chicago scoring just over 17 points per game since week 4. The Vikings have meanwhile scored fewer than 23 points just once this season – and it’s not like they’re sporting Joe Montana at quarterback. Take the Minnesota Vikings -3 at Chicago.
At a decent 3-2 SU/ATS against prospective playoff teams, Las Vegas may not quite yet be considered among the NFL’s elite but one face is certain The Raiders score points in gobs. Excepting the wind-tossed game at Cleveland, Vegas averages 28.9 points per; simply put, the low-watt Broncos offense cannot keep up despite the generosity of the Raiders D.
Simply put, the Broncos just aren’t very good in any aspect of the game. In their three SU wins, the Broncos beat the Jets, the Patriots and the Chargers shooting themselves in the foot once again. Head coach Chucky has the Raiders bucking for playoff positioning after the win in Kansas City and NFLbets believes the Broncos are hardly a speed bump. Take the Las Vegas Raiders -4 vs Denver.
This one can be played by the simplest of numbers: win-loss record. The Bills are 7-2 SU and have played a good, challenging schedule despite three games against the Jets and Patriots. And while the defense has garnered much praise in 2020, the truth is that four times have the Bills been torched for 400 yards passing; sure, two of those QBs were Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson, but the other two were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff.
Worse yet, the Bills rank a lowly 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Throw in a trip to the Pacific Time Zone for Buffalo and we figure that Kyler Murray & Co. will do some serious damage, even to potential blowout proportions. Take the Arizona Cardinals -3 at Buffalo.
It may be unscientific, but sometimes the NFL bettor has to take a swing at a longshot – after all, upsets do happen, right? NFLbets is certainly not alone in loving the play of Joe Burrow, and Burrow is just as certainly glad the Alex Richmond and Bobby Hart returned to the lineup a couple games ago: Burrow took zero sacks for the first game in his rookie career vs Tennessee last week. After a bye to prepare and heal up, Burrow could made it two in a row in week 10.
More unscientific thinking: NFLbets needs to see one more convincing win from the Pittsburgh Steelers before we’re ready to believe they’re as good as their record indicates. Don’t get NFLbets wrong: WE certainly consider them the second-favorite to win the AFC right now, but they’re not going 16-0. The numbers are already catching up, as Pittsburgh is currently on a 1-2 ATS jag.
We’re looking for Burrow and Bengals to defy expectations once again (they’re among the league best ATS at 6-2): Take the Cincinnati Bengals +7 at Pittsburgh, and bet the Bengals money line (ML) at +270 – if you’re like NFLbets, you can probably use a lose makeup win…
–written by Os Davis
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