Playing week 11 of the My Bookie Super Contest is purely an academic exercise for NFLbets: We’re out of the running for the big prize at season’s end and our crazy bad performance two weeks ago snuffed our chances for a quarterly prize.
Ah well: Guess we have no cause to complain that this week’s potential NFLbets Best Bet™ – Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders – has yet to have lines posted and may be last-minute. Ah well, we’re left with reasonable choices to juuuust fill out a pick-5 card…
New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans. As a head coach, Romeo Crennel is 0-2 SU/ATS against Belichick’s Patriots with point spreads of +15½ and +17. Now, NFLbets is hardly arguing the these Patriots are equivalent to the 2007 or ’11 teams, but we’re feeling good about the coach vs. coach betting strategy after the Seahawks took care of business for NFL bettors on Thursday night…
Miami Dolphins -3½ at Denver Broncos, a.k.a. the WTF line of the week. Volume betting could easily push this line up to Dolphins -5 or -5½ by kickoff (on Saturday morning, most sportsbooks are offering Dolphins -4 to -4½). Both the WTFery and everyday punters giving the points certainly gives NFLbets pause, but sometimes you just have to bet the football…
Cincinnati Bengals +1½ at Washington FT. Naturally Dolphins at Broncos will draw a lot more bettors than this one, but NFLbets is also in some disbelief here as well. So the Bengals got smoked when meeting a proper pass defense (ranked no. 2 in overall DVOA, no. 2 against the pass) like the Steelers’ and are facing a comparable force in Washington, the NFL’s 7th-ranked defense in DVOA.
The impetus to take Cincinnati and a point or two is in the nonexistent Washington offense: This isn’t much of a Football Team on the entire side as a bottom-5 team in nearly every conceivable stat from DVOA to scoring to yardage. Even a well below-average defense like the Bengals’ should have few problems with an offense that surrenders 3.33 sacks per game and scores just 20.0 per.
“Los Angeles” Chargers -9½ vs New York Jets. If not for the bizarre dumb luck that apparently haunts the Chargers, this team might be 5-4 right now and their covering of a double-digit point spread would be a foregone conclusion. Well, these Jets’ll need a lot more than luck to when any game in 2020…
Minnesota Vikings -7 vs Dallas Cowboys. Should one game screw NFLbets this week, it’s this one. The nanosecond the Kansas City-Las Vegas game hits the My Bookie contests page, this one’s getting swapped out…
–written by Os Davis
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