Ding dong, the witch is dead! (Bet the Jaguars -5½ vs Texans)

NFLbets realizes that we’ve taken a sworn vow not to bet these ridiculous unforecastable AFC South interdivisional games. Also that even considering betting on a game between two 2-11 teams. That’s right, we’re talking about putting real Moneys on

Houston Texans +5½ at Jacksonville Jaguars, over/under 40 points

You’d think you’d have to be crazy to bet on either of these teams, but if you’re looking at a team who’s just jettisoned their head coach *sooner than any in history* and as a result has seen their point spread *increase*, you’ve got to break out that bankroll.

With Urban Meyer gone, which Jaguars have grudges to be taken out on the poor Texans…?

•  Start with the coaching staff, guys like defensive coordinator Joe Cullen and then-OC/now interim head coach Darrell Bevell, whom Meyer reportedly called “losers.” These two alone will be digging deep into the playbook, the kids suddenly running the candy shop.

•  The Jacksonville defense is marginally superior to Houston’s, though they rank dead last in turnovers. NFLbets isn’t sure how much a lack of ballhawking can be ascribed to Meyer’s incompetence, but prospective Texans QB Davis Mills thus far has taken 24 sacks and surrendered 12 turnovers against 8 touchdown passes.

•  Marvin Jones, a 12-year veteran, the Jags’ leading receiver and second-high in total yards, apparently (and justifiably) believes that he’s a better play caller than Meyer; he certainly relish the opportunity to do so against the Texans defense, currently ranked 30th in points and yardage allowed.

•  James Robinson, who already has something in general to prove. Prior to the last two games, Robinson averaged 85.2 total yards per game to go with 7 total touchdowns. In the past two games, he’s managed just 39 total yards combined and was benched in the first quarter in Meyer’s last game.

•  Finally, Trevor Lawrence must get a mention. Lawrence is clearly blessed with raw talent and has shown (if extremely mercurially) the proverbial flashes of brilliance in his rookie season. NFLbets can’t say with surety that this guy is so wired, but after a football life replete with zero losing seasons up to 2021, Lawrence has got to be hating a) his team’s record and b) the media’s full-scale attention shift to Mac Jones as new young darling QB.

A brief paean to the trends, though NFLbets is doubtful of the meaningfulness of these numbers.

Houston is 4-8-1 ATS, with the over going 9-5 in Texans games. Both SU wins have come against AFC South teams, including these Jaguars in week 1 and the stunning win at Tennessee in week 11. Jacksonville is meanwhile 4-9 ATS including the current 0-4 jag (hey, it was there), and unders are a whopping 11-2 in Jaguars games.

You know what? NFLbets will take that last number to heart. We’re already believing that the slaying of the Meyer beast will unleash the Jacksonville offensive kraken (isn’t that a hockey team?), so why not assume that clouds have at least temporarily dissipated and both teams will romp? We’re thinking this one game will comprise the entire 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars highlight film. Take the Jaguars -5½ vs the Houston Texans and take the over on an O/U of 40 points.

–written by Os Davis

Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.

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