How first-year NFL coaches perform on opening day, in playoffs

27 August 2022

Here’s an interesting macro trend possibly of use to NFL bettors: The lack of success that first-year head coaches enjoy not only in week 1, but for the entire season as well.

Between kickoff in 2013 through the 2021 NFL season, some 50 head coaches assumed their position with a new team or landed their first NFL head-coaching job. Altogether, these coaches earned a cumulative 22-28 SU mark with the new club on opening day, and 12 managed to get their team into the playoffs in their debut season. Seems clear enough, until one takes a closer look at the year-by-year breakdown...

• 2021: 2-5 (1 made playoffs)
• 2020: 0-0
• 2019: 0-1 (0 made playoffs)
• 2018: 0-7 (2 made playoffs)
• 2017: 4-2 (3 made playoffs)
• 2016: 4-3 (2 made playoffs)
• 2015: 5-2 (1 made playoffs)
• 2014: 4-3 (1 made playoffs)
• 2013: 3-5 (3 made playoffs)

Last season, the new head coaches were Nick Siriani (Philadelphia Eagles), Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers), Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions), David Culley (Houston Texans), Urban Meyer (Jacksonville Jaguars), Robert Saleh (New York Jets) and Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons). Only Siriani and Staley got their teams wins in week 1, and only of the above listing, only the Eagles eked into the playoffs.

In 2021, the NFL head coaching ranks see their biggest crop of first-year coaches literally ever, with 10 new sideline leaders. Combined with the five surviving second-year coaches, and that’s nearly half the league headed up by relatively new faces.

Joining a new/first team as head coach for 2022 are:

• Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
• Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Brian Daboll, New York Giants
• Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
• Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos
• Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
• Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
• Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings
• Doug Peterson, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Lovie Smith, Houston Texans

Now, that’s quite the interesting mix of situations, and it seems to indicate that after a few seasons of stagnation among a lot of near-contenders, the NFL may be back to the more even-keeled results for these coaches that we saw in the mid-2010s. Geez, six of the 10 listed teams (Saints, Buccaneers, Broncos, Dolphins, Raiders and Vikings) are generally considered to be playoff contenders in 2022, two made the playoffs in ’21 (Buccaneers, Raiders) and two clearly required a coaching upgrade/jumpstart (Dolphins, Vikings).

So NFL bettors need make no adjustment there. All things being equal, however, NFLbets is earmarking the following week 1 bets based on the inexperience factor.

• San Francisco 49ers -6½ at Chicago Bears
• Washington Commaders -4 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
• New England Patriots +3 at Miami Dolphins
• Tennessee Titans -6½ vs New York Giants

Stay tuned – week 1 of the 2022 NFL season is nearly upon us…