Tip for NFL betting in 2022: Look at the head coaches!

16 November 2022

Surely NFLbets is not the only finding a lot of questionable decisions from head coaches in 2022 – some not even by Brandon Staley. This season saw a record number of first-year coaches and NFLbets got to wondering just how extreme the influence has been.

Firstly, recent historical precedent shows us that:

• Between kickoff in 2013 through the 2021 NFL season, some 50 head coaches assumed their position with a new team or landed their first NFL head-coaching job.
• Of these 50 head coaches, just 12 (or 24%) managed to get their teams into the playoffs.
• Since 2018, the numbers are even a bit worse: of 15 coaches in their first year with a team, only three (20%) made a playoff run.
• Ten new head coach hires were on the sidelines when the 2022 season began, a record since expansion of the league to 22 teams. Eight of the ten are first-time head coaches; now that Steve Wilkes is head-coaching for Carolina and Jeff Saturday is for Indianapolis, just about one-third of NFL teams are led by rookie HCs.

And how have the 10 newbies performed in 2022? Here’s the list:

• Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings: 8-1 SU/4-4-1 ATS
• Brian Daboll, New York Giants: 7-2 SU/ATS
• Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins: 6-3 SU/5-5 ATS
• Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-5 SU/3-6-1 ATS
• Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos: 3-6 SU/ATS
• Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears: 3-7 SU/4-5-1 ATS
• Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints: 3-7 SU/ATS
• Doug Peterson, Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-7 SU/ATS
• Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders: 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS
• Lovie Smith, Houston Texans: 1-7-1 SU/4-4-1 ATS

Now there’s some clear delineation for you and, along with the bumper crop of first-year coaches will come a bumper-crop of first-year playoff coaches. This miner outlier (by average, about 3.33 such HCs should be expected to get to the postseason and 2022 should produce four) is fairly easily explained: the Dolphins, Vikings and Buccaneers all entered the season with essentially complete teams in place, right down to the QB – and not coincidentally, each is .500 or worse ATS.

As for Daboll’s Giants, well, we’d say having a fourth-place team’s schedule helps…

On the other end of the spectrum are five coaches who have been with their respective teams since at least 2013. Here’s that list with their performances alongside:

• Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs: 7-2 SU/4-5 ATS
• Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks: 6-4 SU/ATS
• Jim Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens: 6-3 SU/4-4-1
• Bill Belichick, New England Patriots: 5-4 SU/6-3 ATS
• Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers: 3-6 SU/4-5 ATS

Quite the difference, eh? On this list, you’ve got four teams potentially getting into the postseason all performing at least respectably ATS – excepting Kansas City, who have been overvalued by sportsbooks since the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV. And note that two of the Steelers’ three SU wins have come against coaches/teams from the first list in this article.

Fair enough, the everyday NFL fan tends to overvalue the influence of a head coach. But all things being equal in a wacky season, NFL bettors might tend to hedge their bets on the established boss – and realize that a Chiefs vs. Seahawks Super Bowl is a well more realistic possibility than the odds might suggest…

– written by Os Davis