NFL betting: Can hyped-up Tua Tagovailoa get the Miami Dolphins 9 wins?

For the 2022 Miami Dolphins(and would-be NFL bettors wagering on them), it’s already all about Tua Tagovailoa. 

“It's now or never for Tua Tagovailoa in Miami after this Dolphins offseason,” stated Yahoo. “Dolphins showcasing Tagovailoa's deep passes sends a message!” figures FanSided’s Phin Fanatic. “How Tua Tagovailoa has changed and why there’s confidence in the Miami Dolphins!” enthused ESPN.com. “Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are Finding a New Way Forward!” rang out the Ringer.

And free-agent acquisition WR Tyreek Hill has proclaimed Tua to be better than Patrick Mahomes, which sent Stephen A. Smith on an enjoyable rant.

The lines in key proposition bets and futures on the Dolphins include

• over/under win total: 9 (-120, -110)
• To make/miss the playoffs: +135/-180
• to win AFC East: 5/1
• to win AFC: 20/1
• to win Super Bowl LVII: 40/1

Why all the emphasis on Tagovailoa? Aside from the general hype surrounding a QB drafted in the first round, NFL observers can’t help but consider this team competitive in most areas, just waiting for a franchise QB to take up the reins.

After closing out the 2021 regular season on an 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS run, the Dolphins fired appartently beleaguered head coach Brian Flores and beefed up the roster in the offseason. Coming aboard via free agency or trade for ’22 are Hill, LT Terron Armstead, RBs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and LB Melvin Ingram.

As with the Denver Broncos, the sportsbooks apparently figure the Dolphins are on the playoff bubble: The implied probability based on payouts for over-9 and under-9 wins are both over 50%, and yet the odds are tilted significantly in favor of Miami missing the playoffs.

Here’s how NFLbets sees it. Assuming Tua improves even marginally over 2021 (incidentally, the man is 13-8 SU/12-8-1 ATS as an NFL starter) the smart pick here is to take the Dolphins over 9 wins and take the Dolphins to make the playoffs at +135.

A first-year head coach isn’t very likely to advance his team far in the playoffs, but consider this for regular-season betting on the Dolphins: How much must a team that went 9-8 while the owner *was attempting to bribe the head coach into losing games* improve to win 10…?