NFLbets is pretty sure that the league’s schedule makers thought Monday Night Football in week 5 would make for a slightly more compelling game … not to mention more compelling bets. Instead, we’ve got a rather humdrum matchup with a line of
Indianapolis Colts +3½ at Denver Broncos, over/under 42 points
From the looks of that point spread, oddsmakers may be trying to appeal to those who believe in teh death of Denver’s homefield advantage – but rumors of this death may be greatly exaggerated. In the Broncos’ post-Manning Era beginning on Opening Day 2016, they’re 25-26 SU/25-24-2 ATS in home games, 21-29 SU/19-27-1 ATS when playing away – not a major difference, but the 4½-game difference in ATS results suggests that the sportsbooks are actually giving some marginal-at-best Broncos teams too much credit *in away games*.
The Broncos have also gotten the benefit of the doubt by oddsmakers over the past seven-past season, with unders going 28-19 and 31-20 away and at home, respectively.
Meanwhile, speaking only of the present season’s conditions, both the Colts and Broncos have proven to be underwhelming at best and completely overrated at 1-3 ATS each and a combined 1-3-1 SU/0-5 ATS when playing as odds-on favorite.
Factoring in head coach Frank Reich’s record on Thursday night with four different QBs – 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS – and taking Indianapolis plus the points looks like the smart pick. NFLbets is naturally hesitant, based particularly on last weekend’s performance but both teams.
First are the Colts, who have yet to score 20 points in a game, lost despite outscoring the Tennessee Titans 7-0 in the second half. Matt Ryan performed reasonably well with a stat line of 27-of-37 for 356 yards and two TDs against one interception and three sacks taken – but he’s obviously without a real redzone threat. Last season’s fantasy darling for the Colts after an impressive first two games has gone for just 2.8 yards per in 41 carries and one fumble lost.
As the Colts were stymied at Tennessee, the Broncos succumbed to the Las Vegas Raiders in uncharacteristic fashion, i.e. a defense which had averaged just 12 points allowed per game was torched by Derek Carr & Co. for 32 points. Russell Wilson turned in perhaps his best game of the season in turning in a hardly flashy line of 17-of-25 for 237 yards and two TDs against zero picks and three sacks. In addition to taking the literal L, nearly as big as loss came in the injury to Javonte Williams, Denver’s no. 2 in total yards now out for the season.
In conclusion, NFLbets can’t be confident in betting either of these teams. However, with the Colts averaging about 13 points per game and the Broncos usually good to hold a below-average offense like Indy’s to 12 or fewer plus a lack of dependable individual scorers for either side, we’re saying take the under on an O/U of 44 points.
– written by Os Davis
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