NFLbets rarely says (writes?) things like this – indeed, we mostly avoid doing so altogether – but this line presents some real pony-up-the-whole-bankroll, hock-the-jewelry, mortgage-the-house level of opportunity. You know we’re talking:
San Francisco 49ers -6½ at Carolina Panthers, over/under 39½ points
NFLbets has said (written?) this before and gotten into trouble, but wow, sometimes NFL betting is that easy.
First off, this could very well be Carolina head coach Matt Rhule’s last game in the position, and when would you ever cover such a coach’s team, regardless of the points you’re getting? Rhule (together with defensive coordinator Phil Show) have run up an 11-26 SU/13-23-1 ATS record since 2020. If you want to attribute that to playing lots of games against powerhouses like the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, just consider that the Panthers went 2-6 SU/ATS against these two in that time frame and were 0-6 SU/ATS when underdogs of 6 points or more.
This season, the Panthers offense is particularly egregious: They’re dead last in plays from scrimmage, time of possession and first downs; they’re also ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric for offensive lines and total offense. Somehow this offense has scored eight touchdowns thus far this season, though they’re spead out enough so that the Panthers are averaging a lowly 19.5 points per game.
Then there’s the question of Baker Mayfield vs. the Cardinals defense – not much of a question, really – more of a cautionary warning. Mayfield appears to currently be in an awkward phase of career between unfunny pitchman to unfunnily pitched aside. In this last game against a Cardinals D ranked fifth-worst in points allowed and sixth-worst against the pass, his line ultimately read 22-of-36 for 197 yards with one TD against a lost fumble and two interceptions. Less than 5.0 yards per pass attempt against Arizona? Yeesh.
The 49ers, meanwhile, are clearly not a bad defense. In four games this season, San Francisco has surrendered a scanty 46 points total, including 12 in the fourth quarter amidst freakish Chicago weather in week 1. The 49ers are no. 1 in the league in points allowed, yardage allowed and first downs surrendered – and they’re no. 2 in passing yardage *and* rushing yardage allowed. Good luck, Mr. McCaffrey…
And good luck, Mr. Mayfield. Mayfield have been beyond mediocre-to-replaceable already in 2022 against a slate of vs Cleveland Browns, at New York Giants, vs New Orleans Saints and at Arizona. Sorry, but none of those defenses is San Francisco’s.
About the only things that worries NFLbets about giving a touchdown on this line is the very real possibility that Mayfield gets yanked early by the desperate Ruhle for P.J. Walker (2-0 SU/ATS career as an NFL starter!) to break out enough stuff to surprise the Niners and close a 27-7 gap down to 27-21 by sheer force of surprise.
But there’s no way NFLbets can bet that. We’re just going to sit back, clean out all the couch cushions and call in any favors and old debts, and go all-in to take the San Francisco 49ers =6½ at Carolina and think about taking Carolina under 16½ points, not to mention any “alternative lines” available thereof. Pick of the year, folks!
– written by Os Davis
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