The matchup for week 12 Monday Night Football probably looked a lot better in February when the schedule was being constructed:
Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ at Indianapolis Colts, over/under 39½ points
As for the how and why of betting this game, at least the why is easy: It’s the only NFL game on! The how is naturally quite a bit trickier…
First and foremost, it’s difficult to see Indianapolis favored over anybody, even at home. The Colts currently (and nearly unfathomably) sit at 4-6-1 SU/5-6 ATS; what’s more, they’re a relatively impressive 3-2 SU/ATS against non-AFC South teams but an insane 3-0 SU/ATS against the AFC West; the Colts are also 1-3-1 SU/1-4 ATS as a favorite this season. But again, *four wins* for a team that has scored over 20 just twice and is the second-lowest scoring team in the league.
On the other side are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who apparently continues to try not to tank games whatsoever despite a basic lack of quality skill-position players. Pittsburgh sits at 3-7 SU/4-6 ATS and, as oddsmakers are slightly more realistic about the Steelers, have been favored only once in 2022. The Steelers are a bottom-5 offense and bottom-5 pass defense, incredibly currently dead last in interceptions surrendered and interceptions generated. And they’re the fifth-lowest scoring team in the NFL.
With little confidence in either offense or defense, the play is the under, right? The Colts and Steelers combined have been “good” for just 32.7 points per game, nearly one full TD below the under for this game. And while this seems to be a low point spread, this will be the 37th game kicking off with an over/under of 39⅓ or less in 2022 – and unders are 20-14-2 thus far in these games.
NFLbets does love playing the under in general, both teams would rather play a run-first offensive game plan, and both defenses are bottom-3 in turnovers. NFLbets may not be able to decide clearly on a SU winner, but we can easily imagine a grinder of a game with Jon Taylor dominating. If only Pittsburgh can hold him to fewer than four scores… Take the under on an O/U of 39½ points.
– written by Os Davis