Point spread betting not only gives the average NFL bettor a punter’s chance (so to speak) every week, but also assures that the house will, on a given week, maximize profit. Thanks to the built-in “vigorish” or “vig”, the sportsbook wins a minimum of 10% on almost every single NFL game.
The point spread is designed to create a case where half of the bettors will choose one team and the other half of the bettors make wagers on the other. Moving the ’spreads a ½-point over -3 can in some cases swing the number of bets to be placed on the other side.
Point spread betting: Magic numbers and trends
Magic numbers in NFL football – for reasons of both frequency of occurrence and the increasingly common teaser bets – are +/-3, 6, 7, 14 and 17. Setting a point spread of over 17 on any NFL game is more or less considered taboo, and the Buffalo Bills’ win over the Minnesota Vikings as 16½-point underdogs in 2018 is considered the biggest straight-up upset in the history of the point spread.
Since 1940, just 22 games have had a point spread set at 17 or more points. Crazier yet, 17 of those 22 happened between 1984 and 1992, and a nearly 27-year gap would pass before the next occurred in 2019 (New England Patriots -18 at Miami). After that, the 22nd happened … the following week (Dallas Cowboys -22 vs Miami).
The below chart represents statistics derived from NFL games since 1970. For each point spread between 0 points (a.k.a. “pick ’em”) and that magic 17, the percentage change of the favorite and underdog each winning SU. Now, keep in mind that these numbers exist solely in a vacuum. Home field advantage, for example, adds a 2.2% chance of winning in any given game – again, all things being equal.
NFL Football Pointspread conversion table: ATS vs SU
|
Point spread |
Favorite Win %age |
Underdog Win %age |
|
0 |
50.0% |
50.0% |
|
1 |
51.4% |
48.6% |
|
1½ |
52.6% |
47.4% |
|
2 |
53.6% |
46.4% |
|
2½ |
54.6% |
45.4% |
|
3 |
59,5% |
40,5% |
|
3½ |
64.4% |
35.6% |
|
4 |
65.9% |
34.1% |
|
4½ |
67.4% |
32.6% |
|
5 |
68.2% |
31.8% |
|
5½ |
69.1% |
31.0% |
|
6 |
70.8% |
29.3% |
|
6½ |
72,5% |
27.6% |
|
7 |
75.3% |
24.7% |
|
7½ |
78.2% |
21.8% |
|
8 |
79.2% |
20.8% |
|
8½ |
80.3% |
19.7% |
|
9 |
80.8% |
19.2% |
|
9½ |
81.2% |
18.8% |
|
10 |
83.7% |
16.3% |
|
10½ |
86.1% |
13.9% |
|
11 |
87.2% |
12.8% |
|
11½ |
88.3% |
11.7% |
|
12 |
88.6% |
11,5% |
|
12½ |
88.8% |
11.2% |
|
13 |
89.4% |
10.6% |
|
13½ |
90.1% |
9.9% |
|
14 |
92.5% |
7.5% |
|
14½ |
95.0% |
5.0% |
|
15 |
95.7% |
4.3% |
|
15½ |
96.4% |
3.6% |
|
16 |
98.2% |
1.8% |
|
16½ |
99.9% |
0.1% |
|
17 + |
100.0% |
0.0% |
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