Best bet, NFL week 14: Forget the marquee games, part 2

Wednesday, 04 December 2019 13:04 EST

Most of the lines for NFL week 14 are logical enough so as not to evidence any major outliers. Except…

Miami Dolphins +5½ at New York Jets

Seriously, this one is even more confounding than that “Tennessee -3 at Oakland” line. And in even more of a game featuring teams headed in opposite directions, how are the upward-trending Dolphins getting almost a touchdown against the frankly terrible New York Jets?

Look, NFLbets believed in the new-look Jets at season’s beginning, despite head coach Adam Gase’s preseason bitching about getting “stuck” with LeVeon Bell. (Of course, because why wouldn’t you want a potential top-5 RB starting for you?) Since then, however, Gase has seemingly attempted to stymie his own team’s success by not only refusing to fully exploit Bell’s skills but essentially every member of the offense.

Like the Las Vegas Raiders, the Jets managed to fool pundits and fans with a deceptive 3-game SU/ATS winning streak of consecutive 34-point games. But even leaving aside the pretty weak competition (vs New York Giants, at Washington, vs Vegas) of those three games, the truth is the Jets have managed a weak 17.0 points per game. Removing the three wins representing literally half of the team’s total points scored in 12 games, drops them to a week 11.3 ppg.

On the other side, after starting with what appeared to be a historically bad 0-5 SU/ATS start, the Dolphins shed themselves of some high-level talent, let Ryan “The Brain” Fitzpatrick run a pragmatic offense designed for a mostly young patchwork team and design some interesting plays and game plan. The Miami front office may be willing to tank to enhance those draft picks just a wee bit further, but this team is playing with admirable heart: A nice 6-1 ATS rebound has them at 6-6 ATS overall and, though you can’t (yet) bet on it, the Dolphins have a well brighter future. Even in the short term.

Take the Miami Dolphins +5½ at the Jets.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 3-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 15-13.

–written by Os Davis

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