US Presidential Election betting: Get your bets in before the polls come in

10 March 2020

Some may think it in bad taste to bet on elections, but NFLbets sees proposition bets like “US Presidential Election – Winning Party” as a fantastic opportunity to make the best of a bad situation, especially if you strongly suspect who you’re voting he who will ultimately lose in Election 2020.

For example, consider this prop…

US Presidential Election – Winning party
Democrats: +120
Republicans: -245
Any other party: +5500

First, those 55/1 odds offered on “Any other party” are ludicrous. Look, NFLbets will give you better odds than that right now. We’ll give you 10,000/1 odds here – at least. Seriously, why burn your money in Las Vegas on what is clearly either the product of drunken logic or a gag gift for that wacky Libertarian or Green in your social circle?

In all seriousness, if a) Donald J. “The Populist King” Trump felt it necessary to go through the Republican Party to win and b) registered Democrats would rather vote for a guy who confuses texting with the internet, his wife with his sister, Iowa with New Hampshire and running for president with running for senate than a candidate who has a puncher’s chance against the MAGA machine.

And here lies the rub. The combined weight of mainstream media bias, billionaire backers and the entrenched Democratic Party establishment was enough to give former veep Joe Biden a healthy win of delegates and perhaps even a slim victory in the overall vote. The result was a big shift in the odds table for the proposition bet “Next Elected President of the United States” going into March 16 primary voting looks like so:

Donald Trump: -130
Joe Biden: +125
Bernie Sanders: 16/1

And Sanders just three weeks ago was at +275 with Biden fetching +325 at some online sportsbooks.

Pragmatically speaking – and we must speak pragmatically when dealing with real money – the simplest Election 2020 scenario plays with Trump winning handily. So covering the reelection of ol’ Cheeto Head at -130 is a freakin’ steal right now, and we mean *right now*, like before the next numbers come in. Because if the mainstream media again succeeds in convincingly portraying the results of the March 10 primaries as another resounding Biden win, he’ll seem unbeatable – for the nomination.

But consider three alternate scenarios:

• What if Sanders somehow still manages to win enough electoral votes to contest at the convention. Or even wilder, say he gets exactly 1,932. At 59 delegates short, Sanders would then almost assuredly get the support of Tulsi Gabbard’s 2 delegates and would more than likely do whatever it takes to win over Elizabeth Warren’s 57 – even give her a/the spot on the ticket so as to mollify moderates while keeping progressives happy.

• Alternatively, a contested convention puts the results up for grabs. This would be a guarantee that Sanders gets no nomination, while the unlikeliness of a Biden nomination increases greatly, paving the way for a nominee who maybe, you know, could beat Trump.

• Finally, there is the dark end of the spectrum. After all, there is a reason that people show concern over the fact that the three main contenders for the presidency are all septuagenarians. On the Democratic side, you’ve got one guy who’s already suffered a heart attack during this campaign versus a second who … how shall NFLbets put it … has been acting slightly touched lately. (And we don’t mean “touched” in Biden’s usual fashion here.)

Now, emerging as the winner out of a contested convention doesn’t exactly make one a favorite for the presidency: The last such candidate was Adlai Stevenson in 1952, who lost to Dwight Eisenhower. Hubert Humphrey was the last to get the nomination while neither the incumbent nor a participant in primaries; in 1972, he got smoked by the sitting POTUS, the charisma machine Richard Nixon.

The point: Odds on “Other” in a “To Win U.S. Presidential Election” prop must be pretty enticing right now at an absolute minimum of 20/1 and probably more on the order of 35/1. As a flyer, throw a few dollars at any decent odds you can find on this; its one hell of a better bet than an insane “Third Party Wins” bet.

(So how about hat offering, My Bookie…?)

– written by Os Davis

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