NFL results Against the Spread (ATS): What NFLbets learned in week 3

29 September 2020

What NFLbets learned in week 4: Miami and Carolina aren’t quite that bad, Denver and the Chargers are.

• Cincinnati’s on the upswing, Philadelphia’s on the downswing and hastily accelerating.
• The Packers are the over/under breakers in 2020 and the lines will begin to reflect this.
• Also Seattle.
• Buffalo is for real. At least until the (extended!) playoffs begin, though we can’t imagine Belichick not pulling out all stops to prevent the Bills from winning the AFC East.
• Arizona’s final SU win-loss record will be worse than most of us thought – a team can’t take an L to Detroit while trying to stay in the 2020 NFC West race.
• And finally, we may never bet a Titans game for the rest of the season … or at least until next Sunday.

The following are the results for the week 3 games of the 2020 NFL season, adjusted for the point spread. Game results listed in italics are those for which the SU and ATS result differed.

Miami Dolphins 31 at Jacksonville Jaguars 10½. Have both of these teams been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet? On the other hand, NFLbets supposes that the 2020 Miami Dolphins aren’t *that* bad – figure the Fins to go 5-11 SU/6-10 ATS…

Chicago Bears 30 at Atlanta Falcons 23½. What the bloody hell is going on with the post-Super Bowl LI Falcons? NFL bets has postulated several theories:

1. Dan Quinn is trying to pull some bizarre meta-goof on the Atlanta Falcons franchise and quite possibly the entire NFL and its fandom.
2. Dan Quinn has been bought off by large-scale gambling concerns and thus deliberately throws these games.
3. Dan Quinn literally has PTSD caused by the panic-inducing onslaught of Bill Belichick and his EEEeevil New England Patriots.
4. Dan Quinn just isn’t a very good head coach right now.
5. His players have completely lost confidence and/or given up on Dan Quinn.

Obviously, the best move for the Falcons to make is to keep him coaching for at least two more weeks. Obviously. But how can he top the collapses of the past two weeks?

Cincinnati Bengals 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 17½. Looking back, the SU tie makes a lot of sense: Joe Burrow and the Bengals are at that stage in their ascension to competitiveness where they’re tying games; Carson Wentz and the Eagles are meanwhile at the parallel stage in their decline.

Carolina Panthers 21 at “Los Angeles” Chargers 10. We may have to begin taking the Panthers seriously. Okay, semi-seriously.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 at Denver Broncos 10
San Francisco 49ers 33 at New York Giants 9
Indianapolis Colts 23½, New York Jets 7. “Which New York football team (FT?) is worse, ask a zillion talking heads, podcasters and online writers, with varying levels of jokiness. Well, for NFLbets’ purposes next week, we’re saying the Giants. Why? They’re getting nearly two TDs at the Los Angeles Rams and they’re not even gonna cover that. The Jets in week 4 are +3½ at home against the Denver Broncos, who are just about as likely to go 1-15 as the New Yorkers.

Detroit Lions 26 at Arizona Cardinals 18½. So much for that Kyler Murray-for-MVP talk…

Cleveland Browns 26½, Washington Football Team 20. Since management in Washington appears deadest on the “Washington Football Team” name, can we Europeanize that for the sake of coolness? You know, like F(ootball) C(lub) Barcelona – They could be Washington FT. They should be Washington FT. NFLbets is calling them Washington FT.

Seattle Seahawks 32½, Dallas Cowboys 31. Yeeeah, that preseason bet NFLbets has on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl is looking pretty useless right about now…

Buffalo Bills 33½, Los Angeles Rams 32. How can Aaron Donald turn in such a dominant performance, but the defense still gives up 35 points and the team loses? How does a team score 28 unanswered points in the second half and lose? Worst of all, how does an ostensible Super Bowl contender with a ridiculous force of nature like Aaron Donald be covering the spread with 30 seconds left and then blow our bet? How, I ask you, HOW?!?!?!?!?? Not that we’re bitter or anything…

Minnesota Vikings 30, Tennessee Titans 28. No, NFLbets cannot explain the Titans’ maddening 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS record thus far. The bad news is that Tennessee is up to +2 versus Pittsburgh in week 4; this makes the logical bet of taking Titans plus the points along with the Steelers money line a bit of a tricky proposition – so to speak.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24½, Houston Texans 21. And this result sets up the match between the 3-0 SU Steelers and 3-0 SU Titans – but also the 0-3 SU Vikings and 0-3 SU Texans. And if you think we’re even considering betting that Texans-Vikings game … wait a minute, Texans -3½? Hmmm…

Green Bay Packers 37 at New Orleans Saints 26½. Geez, Green Bay probably doesn’t have to be quite this good to win the NFC North, but it should make betting the over in Packers games easy for a while.

New England Patriots 29, Las Vegas Raiders 20. If any team can solve the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs, it’s these Patriots, who are running the ball at will on offense and are tops in the league in turnovers on defense…

Kansas City Chiefs 34, Baltimore Ravens 16½. …ah, who are we kidding? This Chiefs offense appears unstoppable – or at least as infallible as the 1999 St. Louis Rams. In week 4, the Patriots (or at least those betting on the Patriots) might consider covering the spread (New England +7) and/or keeping the score under 54 total points a moral victory. Damn, these Chiefs are good.

–written by Os Davis