Betting on the NFL playoffs can prove quite profitable – if one can recognize the truth among a forest of blaring narrative pumped out by media outlets. This is the time of year when we have the opportunity to realize that historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; postseason play may differ significantly from that of the regular season, but mathematics and certain realities never really change.
To this end, the recommendations that NFLbets is making for the AFC and NFC Championship Games go against the grain of common wisdom – but we’re confident that we’ll be banking moneys as the mean happily regresses in the late game…
NFLbets hears the arguments for covering the Chiefs minus the points in this game: Patrick Mahomes is a freakish, generational talent; Andy Reid has been in this spot oodles of times; they haven’t been blowing opponents in the season’s second half (they’re on a 9-0 SU/1-8 ATS run) but doing just enough to win; and of course the current 24-1 SU (13-11-1 ATS) run.
But here’s a theory I’ve been expounding upon to anyone who will listen: Repeating as conference champions is difficult. In this century, the only team not named the New England Patriots to do so is the 2003-2004 Seattle Seahawks, and NFLbets dares say that team had a defense substantially superior to what the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs are bringing.
Meanwhile, all the Bills have been doing since their week 6 loss to K.C. is winning in any conditions, by any means necessary. They’ve won at day and at night, at home and away, in Pacific and Eastern Time Zones. In the wildcard game against the Indianapolis Colts, Josh Allen produced 376 total yards, two passing TDs, a running TD and zero turnovers to overcome 450 yards of total offense from Philip Rivers & Co. Last week, it was the defense battening down the hatches, limiting the NFL’s leading rushing game to 150 yards and nearly pitching the shutout.
Add to the Chiefs’ disadvantages in this game the dinged-up state of at least three “skill players” on the offense: Mahomes will be going in at less than 100% with both foot and head/neck injuries. Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will both be returning from injuries as well. All three have been limited or non-existent at practices through Friday.
Finally, consider the Bills performance in 2020 thus far: Against playoff teams, Buffalo has now gone 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS, but hasn’t lost SU since the aforementioned week 6 match against Kansas City. The quarterback has made the proverbial Leap, flipping from near the bottom to near the top of the completion percentage charts during an MVP-type season. Stefon Diggs proved a perfect superstar addition and, with the Patriots fading, a changing of the guard in the AFC East is happening. Looking back on this team, we may realize the inevitability of the “upset” looking to take place on Sunday night.
So, yeah, NFLbets is saying take the Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City. Furthermore, we’re going out on a serious limb and throwing a few moneys on Bills to win by 14 or more points at 5/1; we’ll look like goddamn geniuses for cashing that one…
For NFLbets’ predictions and betting recommendations on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ at Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, click here.
–written by Os Davis
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow enjoys playing against the Baltimore Ravens. He likes playing them because they talk a lot. The Bengals won both games last year, but the Ravens won the other one. The teams played each other in the last week of the season. Bengals beat the Raven 41-21. Ravens lost 31-14. They were on a three-game losing streak. Their secondary was badly injured. It was the Bengals who won. Joe's team won last season's AFC North. Baltimore finished at the top of it. and the team that was on the losing run. it was Josh Johnson.
Pittsburgh Steelers have TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith as their pass rushers. They didn't find a pass rusher in the 2022 NFL Draft. Last season, Pittsburgh signed Melvin Ingram to provide some depth. He was traded to Kansas City for a sixth round pick. The Steelers signed former Dallas Cowboys first round draft pick, Taco Charlton, and signed veteran Genard Avery. They also signed DeMarvin Leal and Mark Robinson. Pittsburgh is focusing on re-tooling their offensive unit.
Christian Harris is studying the tape of Hall of Fame linebackers who played under Lovie Smith. Harris was drafted by the Houston Texans. He's looking for a defensive scheme similar to the one used by Smith in the early 2000s. Harris has watched Derrick Brooks and Lavonte David.
The new-look Saints look to have pieces that'll bring back the old days. After drafting Chris Olave, prime-time weapons are back in the mix. Jameis Winston will be back and the deep ball will come back. Michael Thomas and Chris O'Brien are the top-two receivers. Alvin Kamara is a top 1-5 player in all of football. Deonte Harty and Marquez Callaway will play more freely this year. New Orleans has been top 3 defensively the past two years. This year, with progression in secondary and trenches, the team is deeper at every level.
The Detroit Lions have three first-round draft picks in 2021. Their projected starting five of Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Penei Sewell played exactly zero regular season snaps together last year. All five missed at least one game. The Athletic ranked NFL offensive lines based on pass protection expectations after the draft. Detroit ranked third. If Decker and Rag now don't miss more than 8 and 13 games respectively and no one else misses significant time, they'll fulfill the promise in 2022.
Green Bay Packers are considering drafting a wide receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft. General manager Brian Gutekunst believes the current draft class is deep. He doesn't expect rookies to be breakout stars, but he thinks the team's quarterback will give them more opportunities. . The team traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. It's a stable of receivers that includes Sammy Watkins. They are hoping they can step up in Adams' absence. There are two first-round picks: No. 22 from the Raiders and No 28 from Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback.
Jamaree Salyer is a former Georgia guard who is expected to go in the second round in NFL draft. He has only given up two sacks in his career. The draft is set for April 28-30 in Las Vegas. Sallyer was listed at 6-foot-4 by Georgia but measured at just over 6.2 at the combine. New York Giants offensive tackle Andrew Thomas is working out with Salyser. He went fourth overall in 2020 draft and is considered a good center. Alabama’s Evan Neal, N.C. State”s Ikem Ekwonu and Mississippi State's Charles Cross are considered the top offensive tackles in draft, while Trevor Penning is the next tier.
Matt Ryan was traded by the Falcons to the Colts on Monday afternoon in exchange for a third-round pick. The Colts are looking for their fifth different starting quarterback in as many seasons. Ryan is an established veteran and long-term NFL starter with a history of high-level success. He has just fallen on hard times in recent seasons while surrounded by a middling supporting cast.
The NFL is already underway for the 2022 season. There are still many questions about the league.
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