Betting on the NFL playoffs can prove quite profitable – if one can recognize the truth among a forest of blaring narrative pumped out by media outlets. This is the time of year when we have the opportunity to realize that historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; postseason play may differ significantly from that of the regular season, but mathematics and certain realities never really change.
To this end, the recommendations that NFLbets is making for the AFC and NFC Championship Games go against the grain of common wisdom – but we’re confident that we’ll be banking moneys as the mean happily regresses in the late game…
NFLbets hears the arguments for covering the Chiefs minus the points in this game: Patrick Mahomes is a freakish, generational talent; Andy Reid has been in this spot oodles of times; they haven’t been blowing opponents in the season’s second half (they’re on a 9-0 SU/1-8 ATS run) but doing just enough to win; and of course the current 24-1 SU (13-11-1 ATS) run.
But here’s a theory I’ve been expounding upon to anyone who will listen: Repeating as conference champions is difficult. In this century, the only team not named the New England Patriots to do so is the 2003-2004 Seattle Seahawks, and NFLbets dares say that team had a defense substantially superior to what the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs are bringing.
Meanwhile, all the Bills have been doing since their week 6 loss to K.C. is winning in any conditions, by any means necessary. They’ve won at day and at night, at home and away, in Pacific and Eastern Time Zones. In the wildcard game against the Indianapolis Colts, Josh Allen produced 376 total yards, two passing TDs, a running TD and zero turnovers to overcome 450 yards of total offense from Philip Rivers & Co. Last week, it was the defense battening down the hatches, limiting the NFL’s leading rushing game to 150 yards and nearly pitching the shutout.
Add to the Chiefs’ disadvantages in this game the dinged-up state of at least three “skill players” on the offense: Mahomes will be going in at less than 100% with both foot and head/neck injuries. Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will both be returning from injuries as well. All three have been limited or non-existent at practices through Friday.
Finally, consider the Bills performance in 2020 thus far: Against playoff teams, Buffalo has now gone 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS, but hasn’t lost SU since the aforementioned week 6 match against Kansas City. The quarterback has made the proverbial Leap, flipping from near the bottom to near the top of the completion percentage charts during an MVP-type season. Stefon Diggs proved a perfect superstar addition and, with the Patriots fading, a changing of the guard in the AFC East is happening. Looking back on this team, we may realize the inevitability of the “upset” looking to take place on Sunday night.
So, yeah, NFLbets is saying take the Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City. Furthermore, we’re going out on a serious limb and throwing a few moneys on Bills to win by 14 or more points at 5/1; we’ll look like goddamn geniuses for cashing that one…
For NFLbets’ predictions and betting recommendations on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ at Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, click here.
–written by Os Davis
The Cowboys and 49ers meet for the second straight postseason. Both teams advanced out of Wild Card weekend with double digit victories. San Francisco had a slow start against the Seahawks, trailing by one at half, but won 41-23.
Dallas Cowboys lost to the 49ers in the Wild Card Round last year. They will play them in San Francisco on Sunday.
The San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks 41-23. They will play Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional playoff round on Sunday, January 22nd at 3:30 pm PT (FOX). The 49er's are favored by 3.5 points.
Brett Maher missed four extra points in Dallas' 31-14 victory over Tampa Bay. The game's Over/Under closed at 45.5 at FOX Bet. If Maher had scored one extra point, the game would have ended with 45 points. Most of the bets were on Maher to earn more than 2. 5 extra-points. He finished 1-for-5. Jerry Jones said Dallas will not try to replace the kicker this week.
Dallas Cowboys beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-14 in the NFC Wild Card game. Dallas missed four extra-point attempts. Brett Maher missed all four of his extra points.
Dallas Cowboys beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-14 in the NFL playoff game. Brett Maher missed four extra points. Betting on the game was heavily skewed towards the over. Maher finished 1-for-5 on extra-points. Jerry Jones said Dallas won't replace him this week. BetMGM took a $480,000 bet for the total to fall under 46.5 points at -120 odds.
The Chargers are now 3-point underdogs to the Broncos. The game is scheduled for 1:25 pm PT on Sunday. If the Chargers lose, they will be either the No. 5 or No 6 seed. They could be the fifth seed if the Ravens lose to Bengals.
NFL parlay options are plentiful for the Week 18 weekend slate with 16 games on tap.
NFL teaser picks: Add points to underdog Jets, Rams and Cardinals.