Betting over/under proposition bets, part 8: New York Giants, 7 wins

21 August 2021

Sometimes, maybe three or four teams during a typical NFL regular season, a statistic or insight comes down the pike that makes the NFL bettor want to wager the entire bankroll – or more…

Various listicles coming down the pike in the summer of 2021 are telling similar stories about some of the NFL’s offensive lines, with two themes coming up repeatedly:

• The Cleveland Browns enter 2021 with the best OL in the NFL; and
• the New York Giants (or possibly the Pittsburgh Steelers) have the worst.

Nearly three months ago, NFLbets enumerated the reasons for Pittsburgh to go under 8½ wins in ’21, and contrastingly a month after that plunked down moneys on Cleveland over 10 wins. Beginning with the condemnation of PFF among others, NFL bettors should already be checking potential pays on the under in the proposition bet

New York Giants, over/under 7 wins (-130/+110)

Any Giants backer’ll be happy to inform that hey, Saquon Barkley is returning from injury and Nate Solder from opt-out. As for Barkley, NFLbets would respond that in his first season, the Giants ran a mid-range offense statistically; in his second, New York ranked 30^th in points scored with Barkley putting in just 8 TDs in 13 games.

Meanwhile, the Giants “brain trust” addressed the team’s qualitative slide on offense by taking on Jason Garrett, a guy known for coaching underperforming Cowboys teams in the 10s, as offensive coordinator. The predictable result was a spectacularly bad offense ranking 31^st in total yardage and scoring. Are the acquisitions of TE Kyle Rudoph and WR Kenny Golladay enough when Daniel Jones remains at quarterback?

And that’s the limitation that would-be Giants bettors (and to some extent the Giants front office) must contend with: Jones is clearly not a franchise-level QB but can he prove adequate? With an offensive line like that of New York’s, it’s quite the, likesay, challenge.

Considering the 2021 New York Giants schedule

Another point that Giants backers are likely to count in their favor are the six games against NFC East opponents. The fallacy of continuing similar results states that these games should be pushovers – or at least worth a 50/50 shot. Performance of their division mates, the Giants are an unimpressive 21-32 SU (28-26 ATS) against Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington since 2012, the last season after which New York did not make the playoffs. Only in the most optimistic of scenarios could NFLbets put the Giants at 3-3 in NFC East games, so for the sake of ultra-conservate play, we’ll put New York at 3-3 in the intradvisional games.

Beyond this, Jones & Co. can “thank” the weakness of the division for their second-place finish, thus drawing vs Los Angeles Rams (week 6), at Miami (week 13) and at Chicago (week 17). The NFL’s rotating schedule matches up the NFC East teams with the AFC West and NFC South this season, so the Giants can also look forward to games at New Orleans (week 4), at Kansas City (week 8), at Tampa Bay (week 11) and at the Chargers (week 14).

Admittedly NFLbets has some doubts as to the relative infallibility of the Dolphins and Saints beginning at quarterback, but all the aforementioned teams with the possible exception of the Chiefs bring a pass rush that should eat that Giants OL for lunch. We’d give the Giants losses in all seven games against potential playoff contenders.

Which leaves four games to consider: vs Denver (week 1), vs Atlanta (week 3), vs Carolina (week 7) and vs Las Vegas (week 9). Can the Giants pull off four wins, all at home, against four expected non-playoff teams (sportsbook have the over/under win totals for the four teams at 6½, 7½, 7½ and 7, respectively)? To be honest, NFLbets is now questioning the 7 wins given the Giants in this bet. Look at this way: Not only does the push seem like a completely reasonably likely outcome, the first game against Denver could make or break this prop, giving the bettor 17 more weeks to hedge.

Take the under on 7 wins for the New York Giants. And based on analyses of offensive lines, you’ll definitely want to back away from any “Najee Harris to Win Rookie of the Year” props as well…

–written by Os Davis

Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.