Consider our perceptions of this game today versus how we’d’ve imagined it at season’s beginning. Going into week 1, we’d be forecasting the defending back-to-back AFC champions/current Super Bowl favorite at the sportsbooks hosting an NFL 32nd-“best” contender employing almost certainly the league’s worst offensive coordinator.
Today, as we close off week 8, instead we’ve got a home team who at maximum can be reasonably compared to the 1986 Miami Dolphins as they sit placing last in a division tougher than suspected versus, well, still an NFL 32nd-“best” contender employing almost certainly the league’s worst offensive coordinator.
Okay, that first bit is harsh: In fairness, the Giants have played far less execrably and/or have demonstrated coaching more competent than, likesay, the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions – though they’re definitely bottom-5. So get ready for some sub-marginal football and potentially tricky-ass betting with Monday Night Football’s
Typically at this point, NFLbets would start running through the stats for Andy Reid-coached teams on Monday night (22-12 SU/23-10-1 ATS, including 8-2 SU/8-1-1 ATS with the Chiefs), the poor run that Kansas City’s been on ATS (they’re 4-14 in the last 18, despite a 12-6 SU record) or the Giants’ simply pathetic mark outside the NFC East (since Daniel Jones became starter, they’re 6-8 SU/9-5 ATS against division mates, 6.19 SU/10-15 ATS against everybody else) but wagering on games involving the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs for the nonce requires the prescient bettor to involve otherly logic.
Take, for example, the point spread 10½ points is way too high, regardless of how pitiable the Giants continue to be: K.C. hasn’t given more than 10 points since week 16 of regular-season 2020 against Atlanta and hasn’t covered such a spread since eight weeks prior to that against the New York Jets. In typical fashion, the Chiefs went 2-4 ATS when favored by 10 or more while going 5-1 SU, failing to cover against the likes of the Panthers*, Raiders* (twice), Broncos* and Falcons*.
(* denotes team had winning percentage of .500 or worse)
This trend makes Giants +10½ a heckuva lot more appealing to NFLbets, and evidence of the sportsbooks’ continued overrating of the Chiefs as they have since Patrick Mahomes came to prominence remains. Thus far into 2021, Kansas City is 2-5 ATS, with all four ATS losses against playoff contenders (Browns, Ravens, Bills, Chargers, Titans) and ATS wins against those who are not (Eagles, Washington FT).
Additionally – and NFLbets won’t mince words here – these Chiefs just aren’t very good right now. Bill Simmons put forth quite the salient theory on his latest podcast and, since an approximately 0.00001% chance of his ever reading these words exists, NFLbets will steal it, or at least liberally paraphrase it, here.
Visualize Dan Marino and the Miami Dolphins. Marino gets drafted by the Fins in the legendary ’83 draft class and proves to be a stud immediately. Miami had already built a Super Bowl contender (remember David Woodley going 4-for-14 in XVII…?) under Don Shula’s guidance and Marino first leads them into the playoffs, then to the Super Bowl, then to the AFC Conference Championship. Along the way, he racks up some ridiculous individual statistics while joyfully throwing TDs to “Super” Duper and Mark Clayton.
And then? Well, beginning in 1986, the Dolphins proceeded to make the postseason just once in six seasons. A few tears after that, Shula retired from coaching and was followed by Jimmy Johnson who did likewise. Finally, Mr. Isotoner Gloves Pitchman became known as The Greatest NFL Quarterback Never To Win The Title.
The comparison isn’t exactly exact, but these career arcs could be running in parallel.
Speculation and historical perspective aside, the truth is that the defense is absolutely shreddable by most offenses, allowing 27 points or more in 6 of 7 games and statistically bottom-5 nearly completely across the board. The ostensibly reconstructed OL is back to the lowest levels of 2020 as well, with Mahomes having taken 14 sacks already, whereas in twice as many games in ’19, the Chiefs allowed just 17 sacks. At the current rate, Mahomes’s ignominious career high of 22 sacks taken in ’20 seems doomed.
All right, then. Confidence in the Chiefs (especially -10½) is low. What are the Giants bringing, then? As noted above, the Giants are 12-27 SU in the Daniel Jones Era and, incredibly enough, 14 of the 27 losses have been by more than 10 points. Much of this recently NFLbets would like to blame on Jason Garrett’s incredibly low-watt offense: In the 23 games he’s been OC, Garrett’s Giants have broken 20 points just 9 times and are averaging 18.2 per game.
Combined with the pointspread, the bookmakers are expecting a final score in the area of 31-21. NFLbets can easily believe 31 coming from the Chiefs, who’ve already scored this many in four games and really should have against the Chargers as well. But with no Saquon Barkley or Kenny Golladay in the game, where do the points come from? We’re zagging here and saying Take the Kansas City Chiefs -10½ vs the Giants and take the under on an O/U of 52 points.
–written by Os Davis
Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.
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