NFLbets just keeps staring at the line for this week’s Monday Night Football:
At the beginning of the season, this point spread may not have seemed out of place, either: Back then, most of us (present company included) had been bamboozled by the Washington FT after a 2020 in which the D looked loaded for the immediate future. Seattle meanwhile surfed the hype of the preseason belief that the NFC West could have four playoff-worthy teams plus their eight playoff runs over the past nine years.
As things broke down, the Team was likely buoyed to their mighty 7-9 mark in ’20 due to an easy schedule, while the incredible dissolving defense and Russell Wilson’s first major injury have doomed the Seahawks in game after game.
Since 2010 and the beginning of the Pete Carroll Era in Seattle, the Seahawks are an impressive 11-3 SU/9-5 ATS on MNF. However, they’re also on a disturbing 4-3 SU/ATS run going back to ’17.
There’s also this: At 3-9 SU, the Seahawks are on pace for a 5-12 record. That would be their worst mark since 2008, also known as the last year Mike Holmgren each coached in the NFL. The defense has been particularly awful by most statistical measures, and they’re currently dead-last in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and interceptions generated.
As for Russell Wilson, well, the dude’s middle finger on his throwing hand got screwed – no, literally: Dude had several screws in his hand and most probably came back too early. In the two games since his return, the Seahawks have been outscored by a combined 40-13 score, with the offense scoring exactly one rushing touchdown in the two games.
After dumping four straight, Washington is now on a 2-0 SU/ATS run, with these games representing the first two ATS wins as an underdog for the Football Team in 2021. In a line with a 1-point spread, though, we might as well consider the WFT’s 4-6 SU record instead, while noting that they’re 1-4 SU against teams who currently sport a winning record and are 2-3 SU at home. (Geez, that week 10 win against the Buccaneers looks more and more anomalous…)
As a bettor, should one have confidence in either of these sides? Probably not.
So how about the under? 47 seems quite low and, combined with the point spread, is figuring on a 24-23 game – but that’s probably well too high. Both defenses are well below average to terrible, but somewhat paradoxically neither tends to give up points in bunches: In seven straight games, the Seahawks have held offenses to 26 points or fewer (and incredibly are ranked 7th in points allowed); the FT has surrendered 24 or fewer in four straight.
But then the outlier trend appeared, and it is screaming to be faded:
The under in Seahawks games is 8-1-1 this season; further, seven times the combined point total in Seahawks games was 47 or less and all were after week 3.
For any of his faults, QB Taylor Heinicke has thrown just 9 interceptions in his 9 starts this season. He’s been sacked a whopping 22 times as well – luckily for him, Seattle has no push. And on the other side, who knows? Maybe Wilson can find the feeling in that finger and the flip it to the bookmakers for only handicapping his team a single point. Slightly unfathomable, but NFLbets has to believe that bookmakers are usually pretty good at their jobs and these team-related trends even out. Take the under on an O/U of 47 points.
–written by Os Davis