Monday Night Football betting odds – Denver -7 at Seattle – Russell Wilson Revenge Game

12 September 2022

Forget the question of whether/how Russell Wilson will fit in the Denver Broncos offense: NFLbets is wondering how Wilson’s departure is going to affect the Seattle Seahawks at the sportsbook. We’ll get preliminary answers to both after week 1 of Monday Night Football, which kicks off with a line of

Denver Broncos -7 at Seattle Seahawks, over/under 44 points

For much of recent history, a game in these conditions is a no-brainer and Seattle has a reputation for winning in certain conditions going back to the very beginning of the franchise. Just look at the gaudiness of stats amassed by Seattle:

• In their last 12 home openers, the Seahawks are 11-1 SU/8-4 ATS; the sole SU loss came in 2021, when the Tennessee Titans upset the 6½-point favorites in Seattle, 33-30 in overtime.
• Since 2012, they’re a a ridiculous 16-2 SU/12-6 ATS at home in games during weeks 1-4…
• The Seahawks are By far the most successful team in the history of Monday Night Football at a crazy 28-10 SU/24-12-2 ATS for a winning percentage of .742; that’s 114 percentage points better than the second-best San Francisco 49ers at 49-29 SU. And in MNF home games, Seattle is a ridiculous 20-6 SU/18-6-2 ATS.
• What’s more, behind 1980 and 2021, the Seahawks have played on Monday Night as an underdog. Their record in those games: 6-4 SU and a huge 8-2 ATS.

So for most of this century, Seattle as a home underdog in their season opener on a Monday Night is a set-it and forget-it bet that can be made before preseason games kick off. But in 2022? With the golden era of the 2010s featuring eight playoff runs and two Super Bowl appearances receding into the rearview, head coach Pete Carroll in his 70s and the franchise quarterback gone, the Seahawks are no longer an easy bet.

But the case for Seattle is solid and basic enough – perfect for week 1 NFL betting – to consider taking the Seahawks and the points in this game.

• Broncos starters didn’t play in the offseason; the Seahawks’ did. When asked about the tactic, head coach Nathaniel Hackett loftily stated, “This is what I have been doing the past three years.” This may be so, but the previous years were spent under Matt LaFleur, he of like strategy, whose Packers have lost 28-3 and 23-7 the past two opening days.
• In a Carroll vs. Wilson battle, we like Carroll right now. Particularly given Wilson’s lack of preseason action, he may have to rely on old habits on the fly – and it says here no NFL head coach should know more about Russell Wilson’s QBing habits than Pete Carroll.
• It’s not a Seattle homefield advantage, it’s Denver’s away disadvantage. Seattle’s homefield disadvantage appears to still exist, with a mark of 24-16 SU in regular season home games since 2017, though oddsmakers have caught on, as the Seahawks paid out at 19-20-1 ATS during that span. However, over this past five years of mediocrity, the Broncos and their various QBs are just 12-18 SU/13-27 as opposed to 18-23 SU/19-20-2 in Denver.

Maybe Wilson and the undeniably more talented Broncos can work things out without even a simulation of gameday under their belts, but they’ll have to prove it to us first – especially after seeing the no-preseason Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers in week 1. And eight of the 15 games in opening week were decided by a touchdown or less, some contested by teams who ostensibly had a sizable talent differential (e.g. Colts-Texans, Eagles-Lions). Take the Seattle Seahawks +7 vs Denver.