Betting over/under proposition bets, part 4: Seattle Seahawks, 10 wins

The goal for the Seattle Seahawks in 2021, according to the sportsbooks, is

Seattle Seahwaks over/under 10 wins (+105/-125).

Well before these lines were released or the 2021 NFL Draft went down, NFLbets was quite concerned about seeming lifetime Seahawk Russell Wilson’s hints that he wasn’t necessarily angling at a trade but on the off-chance that he were, he’d like to go to the Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, or New Orleans Saints.

The hot take, then: This complaint speaks to bigger problems, i.e. that the Seahawks front office needed to refresh the roster in the 2020 offseason. Seattle’s 12-4 SU record at face value looks impressive enough but in a season in which all three division mates had off-years, the ’Hawks were just 2-2 SU/ATS against playoff teams, including a win over the marginally playoff Washington Football Team; they closed out ’20 by going 7-5 SU in all games and earning an early exit against the Los Angeles Rams.

Statistically, the 2020 Seahawks were a bit bizarre: Despite ending up no. 3 overall in passing TDs and no. 8 in points scored, Seattle was average at best in all other areas on offense and defense. Thus, presumably, Wilson’s shoutout to some favored destinations.

We’re just not sure how happy the at-least-slightly disgruntled Seattle QB will be with his front office’s results. The biggest name signings were reups – RB Carlos Hyde and DE Carlos Dunlap – unless we talk CB Shaquill Griffin, who jumped to Jacksonville.

And in the Draft? The Seahawks started with just three picks and ended up doing second-worst in the league, per aggregation of 20 experts compiled by Football Outsiders. Summarize the FO in part:

“…graders have universally chided the reach for 24-year-old Western Michigan receiver D'Wayne Eskridge, who has never had more than 38 catches in a season. Oklahoma cornerback Tre Brown, measuring in at 5-foot-10, is atypical for the corners we so often associate with Pete Carroll and Seattle. The brightest spot of this draft class comes from the sixth round, where Florida tackle Stone Forsythe finally came off the board. Sheil Kapadia sees Forsythe as a high-upside tackle who particularly excels in pass protection, perfect for the oft-battered Russell Wilson.”

Maybe Eskridge can surprise and Kapadia is high ceiling, but as the line on the under implies, the ’Hawks are set to regress by a couple of games for starters.

Considering the 2021 Seattle Seahawks schedule

Despite landing a no. 1 finisher’s schedule, the Seahawks still landed a relatively manageable schedule – depending on those NFC West games, of course: In 2020, NFL observers were given to wondering if all four teams from the division could into the expanded postseason; similar musings are apparently echoing for ’21.

Overall, the Carroll & Wilson Seahawks have gone 30-24-1 SU/ATS (no, really: Those records are exactly the same) against teams of varying quality. NFLbets’ll call all things equal and forecast a 3-3 intradivisional record for Seattle.

Forecasting the remainder of the schedule will depend in the faith of Seattle’s homefield advantage. No longer quite as unbeatable as in the days of The Legion of Boom, the Seahawks are 21-12 SU at home – a winning percentage of .636 – since 2017. (Note that this hardly makes Seattle at home a great bet against the spread: In the aforementioned 33 games, Wilson & Co. are an absolutely mundane 15-17-1 ATS.)

Seattle home games in 2021 against non-division opponents include: vs Tennessee in week 2; vs New Orleans in week 6; vs Jacksonville in week 7; vs Chicago in week 15; and vs. Detroit in week 16. This far afield, we could easily call this 4-1 or 5-0, as NFLbets isn’t exactly bullish on the 2021 Saints. Again in the interests of conservative betting, we’ll say Chicago’s still playing scrappy in late December and give Seattle 3 wins from this bunch.

After kicking off their season in Indianapolis, Seattle gets non-divisional away games at Minnesota (week 3), at Pittsburgh (week 6, after a 10-day break), at Green Bay (week 9, after the bye), at Washington (week 11) and at Houston (week 13). Now, NFLbets isn’t calling conspiracy here, but this could turn out to be the opposite of a fearsome gamut. Excepting Washington, we expect all these teams to take a downturn – come on, does anyone believe Green Bay is the no. 1 seed in the NFC and Pittsburgh the no. 3 in the AFC this year? Come on…

And check this out: Since 2017, the Seahawks are an impressive 22-13 SU (or .629) in road games – and are more viable for betting at 17-15-3 ATS. We’ll give 3½ wins here, mainly because NFLbets has no clue which way the Packers’ and Vikings‘ seasons will go.

In total, NFLbets is thus figuring 9½ wins, right in line with the over/under in this proposition bet. It’s unfortunate that no sportsbook takes bets on Pythagorean Expectation (PE) wins, because even if the Seahawks can get to 10 wins in 2021, we figure they’ll need luck to do, beginning with Wilson somehow not missing a game in 10 seasons.

So take under 10 wins for the Seattle Seahawks and once the odds on the “Team To Start Russell Wilson in  2022” are released, take the Vegas Raiders.

– written by Os Davis



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