Over/under win totals – Bet the under on these five NFL teams

31 August 2022

NFLbets earlier put in our recommendations for five teams on which to bet the over in “Over/Under Wins Total” proposition bets and, concomitantly, were also a team to bet in any “Team X Makes the Playoffs” prop. Today, we’ve got a rundown of five teams on which NFL bettors will want to take the under in Wins Total props, though we’re projecting one will make the playoffs nevertheless.

(NFLbets has previously advised that bettors should also ">cover the under-wins side on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, so add those to this list.)

• Atlanta Falcons—under 5, -200; to miss playoffs, -1400
After a classic salary-dumping offseason, shedding 19 of their 21 possible free agents from LB Foyesade Oluokun ($15 million/year) and WR Russell Gage ($10 mil/yr) on down, while picking up Marcus Mariota (because someone should really play quarterback, after all) and CB Casey Hayward as name players. In this rebuilding year, the Falcons are in the running for fewest wins in 2022 and so are here as well. -200 isn’t great value, so maybe a parlay…?

• Chicago Bears – under 6½, -210; to miss playoffs, -550
If only the 49ers front office hadn’t whiffed so terribly badly in the 2021 NFL Draft, they might’ve over-drafted Justin Fields or Mac Jones and thus now be totally justified in attempting to dispose of Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, then Jimmy G’d probably have ended up in Chicago, where right now Fields is about the only thing keeping 6½ wins from total unattainability – and NFLbets doesn’t believe that’s enough.

• Dallas Cowboys – under 10, -135; to miss playoffs, +180
Now here’s some great value, and you get to bet against the Cowboys! NFLbets isn’t exactly sure how the Cowboys’ line is set at 10 wins here. In six seasons with Dak Prescott as QB (not to mention Ezekiel Elliott as RB), the Cowboys have had three seasons of 10 or more wins, once benefitting from a 3rd-place team’s schedule, once from a 4th-place team’s, and always from playing in the NFC East. Also, never twice in row. If that’s not enough, don’t forget the NFL’s no.1 LT Tyron Smith is out for much-unto-all of the 2022 season. Elliott certainly won’t.

• New England Patriots – under 8½ wins, EVEN; to miss playoffs, -190
We know, it’s been lots of fun cashing in on the mostly nearly unstoppable Patriots even if there were the occasional losses to one Manning or another but, as Don Meredith used to croon, the party’s over. By all accounts, Bill Belichick’s coordinator-free offense looks like exactly that in practice and, for that matter, the preseason games. And what appeared to be a literally awesome defense at the beginning of 2021 petered away into mediocrity by the time New England met the Buffalo Bills again. It’s so over…

• Seattle Seahawks – under 5½, -125; to miss playoffs, -700
As with the Patriots, even an over/under line this high is based in respect. How most folks can acknowledge that the NFC West teams have drawn monster schedules and figure that the Denver Broncos have instantly become a contender with a QB that only led Seattle to six wins last season, while seriously wondering if the Seahawks can win six games. Is it Pete Carroll? History will show that 2022 was his last season as an NFL head coach. With the odds offered on Seattle in these props, “Seahawks to Have the Fewest Wins” at 10/1 is tremendous value.