We’ve seen the plug-and-play move pulled off by franchise quarterbacks before. Among the more recent dramatic examples are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, each of which jumped teams and ultimately won Super Bowls with their new teams.
In 2022, NFL bettors are looking to Manning’s second NFL team, the Denver Broncos, to see whether Russell Wilson can plug and play into a team with a top-10 defense in ’21 but little to no offense. So what, if anything, does the news of Wilson’s brand-new 5-year, $245 million contract tell bettors?
About the only certainty NFLbets can reasonably assume here is that the new contract means the coaching staff et al believe Wilson is good to go for 2022. The key word there is “believe”, of course, as since Manning finished with the Broncos in ’15, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemain, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater have all been touted as the future of the franchise – or at its viable short-term present. The result has been a cumulative 39-58 record in the regular season and 0-0 in the playoffs.
Obviously, Wilson has a lot more pedigree than the above-listed guys, but the only one of that lot who received a disproportionate salary was Osweiler – though one might include Lynch and his first-round draft pick pay as well.
But first, the lines in some key proposition bets and futures on the Denver Broncos…
• over/under win total: 10 (EVEN, -130)
• To make/miss the playoffs: -145/+110
• to win AFC West: +250
• to win AFC: +850
• to win Super Bowl LVII: 16/1
If you’re thinking something feels off about these lines, you’re not alone. The immediate question that springs to mind is: How does a team get even odds to win 11 games and yet also get nearly even odds to miss the playoffs? The line of +110 is shorter than that of the Cincinnati Bengals; you know, the defending conference champions…? Again, this is a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in seven years.
NFLbets isn’t willing to consider any AFC West or NFC West team over 10 wins, so we’d say take the Broncos under 10 wins, though the combination of Wislon + good OL + great defense with a couple nice acquisitions added (Randy Gregory, D.J. Jones) makes this line feel like a push.
Beyond that, we’re having trouble seeing beyond what we’re thinking is a monstrous Kansas City Chiefs team and a nearly-as-monstrous schedule for the Broncos. Taking Denver to make the playoffs at -145 is probably a solid bet, but not exactly awesome odds.
Perhaps the best strategy for betting the Broncos in 2022 is week-to-week. Not only will inflated point spreads surely return this year (great to take the opposition plus the points), we’re thinking they’ll outperform the lines on the road. Choose wisely and you’ll probably outbet the Broncos’ 10 wins this season…
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