Bets We Love Too Much Too Early: Conference to win Super Bowl LIX

01 April 2024

Welcome to part 1 of the probably infinite series Bets We Love Too Much Too Early.

Yes, NFLbets realizes that betting on Super Bowl LIX is more than slightly premature with the 2024 NFL Draft yet to be run – but sometimes opportunity emerges for the NFL bettor even in the doldrums of spring.

How good is this bet? NFLbets says this is likely the best chance to hedge against a Super Bowl upset or to get the best possible odds on the Super Bowl favorite. Check out this table:

Conference to win Super Bowl LIX

AFC: -130
NFC: EVEN

Well, thank you very much. NFLbets will indeed jump at the offer to take the NFC as the conference to win Super Bowl 59.

Admittedly, NFLbets can imagine the objections: How can anyone bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (currently second on the “To Win Super Bowl LIX” futures board at +650) gunning for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title? And what about those perpetually knocking, namely the Baltimore Ravens (9/1) and Buffalo Bills (12/1)? And what NFL bettors in their right mind could fail to be bullish on the hyper-exciting CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans (20/1)? Finally, must-consider AFC longshots are the New York Jets (28/1) if Aaron Rodgers is anything resembling, likesay, 2015 Peyton Manning.

Fair enough, but it’s not as though the NFC will be bereft of contenders in 2024. Even beyond the potentially overrated San Francisco 49ers (currently favored in the aforementioned Super Bowl futures bet at +500) are scintillating options like the young ‘n’ exciting Green Bay Packers (NFLbets loves ’em at 22/1) and the Philadelphia Eagles (20/1), whose fortunes can only be looking up in replacing their defensive coordinator. Wait a minute, who was 

So say the 49ers perform as well as in 2023-24, i.e. going 12-5 SU/9-7-1 ATS in the regular season followed by squeaking past the point spread in two playoff games as 10- and 7-point favorites. With Kyle Shanahan’s guys facing any team other than Andy Reid’s, they’ll be the favorites and thus when the earliest odds are released after the conference championships, a 49ers money line (ML) bet will start at -120 at absolute bet and only worsen from there.

On the other hand, say some crafty 10-7/9-8 teams, likesay the Atlanta Falcons (30/1) or Los Angeles Rams (32/1) sneak into the Big Game to face up against the Chiefs, Ravens or Bills? Many NFL bettors will be covering the AFC champs on the ML, and those who have invested in this futures bet already certainly will. Covering the upset has proven wise for nearly a decade and a half now: Going into Super Bowl 59, underdogs are on runs of 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS and 9-5 SU/10-4 ATS.

In the final analysis, NFLbets will be throwing a few dollars onto the NFC in the “Conference to Win Super Bowl LIX” futures bet. Damn, an idle bankroll really is the devil’s plaything…

–written by Os Davis