Thanksgiving comes early – NFLbets is thankful for four week 11 point spreads, one three-team parlay

17 November 2018

Maybe we’re just geeked about snapping a three-game “Best Bets” losing streak by calling the Green Bay Packers-Seattle Seahawks TNF result pretty much exactly – a push on a point spread of Seattle +3 and no miracle from Aaron Rodgers thanks to some, likesay, questionable fourth-quarter decisions by Mike McCarthy to whom NFL bettors are grateful.

Maybe so, but NFLbets can’t help but see good betting opportunities all over the slate of week 11 point spreads. The proper NFL bettor absolutely must avoids the pitfall of the Sunk Cost Fallacy and takes the games week-to-week, the trends month-to-month – but he/she isn’t afraid to splurge on slates like week 11’s.

So following is a rapid-fire presentation of our four Best Bets for week 11 plus a parlay to consider. And if you think some of these picks are wacky, wait until you see our Pick of the Week bet tomorrow…

NFLbets’ Best Bets for NFL week 11

• Chicago Bears -2½ vs Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have been beating up the bookmakers real good this season, thus far going 6-2-1 ATS. Therefore is NFLbets already expecting some regression to the mean; with the point spread in this game set under a field goal (thereby essentially making this a “pick ‘em”), we figure the only question about betting this game is “Do you believe the 2018 Chicago Bears are a playoff team?” If so, you believe they win this game SU and ATS. And we do.

• Houston Texans -3 at Washington
Like Minnesota, Washington has been defying the sportsbooks’ expectations all season long, going 6-3 ATS through 10 weeks. But who outside the D.C. locker room is confident that Washington is a playoff team at all, much less a legitimate contender for, likesay, a 10-6 SU record. Coming into the capitol is the hottest team in the NFL, as the Texans are riding a 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) win streak by playing smart football and doing just enough to win. NFLbets is letting it ride on the Texans.

• Indianapolis Colts -1½ vs Tennessee Titans
Again, we’re taking a holistic approach to this one. If the numbers trend to middling, you’ve got to love the parity that comes with a Colts win: Depending on the result of the Bengals-Ravens game, some five AFC teams would be at 5-5 SU and bucking for the no. 6 seed in the playoffs. O, and the Titans are 6-3 ATS right now. Go Colts!

• Carolina Panthers -4½ at Detroit Lions
Combine Matt Patricia’s seemingly deliberate attempt to alienate his players with the Panthers playing indoors after a long week preceded by an embarrassing loss and what do you get? A Lions loss by more than 4½ points, NFLbets’d say.

 

The Pre-Thanksgiving Week Thing and one good parlay

Poring through recent stats has led NFLbets to the conclusion that, for whatever reason, NFL franchises even beyond the regular hosts in Detroit and Dallas have mastered the art of scheduling Thanksgiving games.

Going back to 2012, we found that all teams were good for a 27-8-1 SU mark the week prior to a Thanksgiving Day game; ATS, these teams were 24-11-1 – records of better than .750 and .667 winning percentages, respectively. In four of the six years considered, pre-Thanksgiving Day contestants went 5-1 SU, though in three years teams managed just a 3-3 ATS record.

So this year in the pre-Thanksgiving week, the half-dozen teams going in week 11 – and why don’t the Thanksgiving Day teams ever get a bye before, eh? – are the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Chicago, Detroit, Dallas and Washington. Making things simpler for the NFL bettor, the Falcons and Cowboys play in Atlanta this week.

And since we’ve already eliminated Detroit and Washington as possibilities to win SU, NFLbets is suggesting a three-team money line (ML) parlay this week: Take the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints to win SU. As of this writing on Saturday, this parlay should pay out at about 5/2 odds. If you give the points on Chicago and Atlanta (-3 vs Dallas), those odds increase to 7/2 or so – not a bad weekend’s worth of “work,” heh heh…

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