Covid, covid, go away … happily, the Raiders have been cleared to play and the sportsbooks have opened lines on the Kansas City-Las Vegas game. Just enough time to bet before the early games kick off on Sunday. Our best bets for the day include…
As noted previously on NFLbets, Romeo Crennel is 0-2 SU/ATS against Belichick’s Patriots with point spreads of +15½ and +17 – but that tiny-ass sample is hardly the only damning stat against a classic above-average defensive coordinator but below-average head coach.
Crennel has led the Texans to a 2-3 SU/ATS record since taking over for week 5, but still hasn’t strung together two wins for the first time since 2007. (Incidentally, what other head coach would refer to his time with the Cleveland Browns as “the good ol’ days”?) For his career, HC Crennel’s teams have amassed a 25-42 SU/34-32-1 ATS record – and with a point spread of a field goal or less with “home field advantage” making this essentially a “pick ’em,” NFLbets is looking more at Romeo’s SU record.
So what about these Patriots? At an unimpressive 4-5 SU/ATS, New England is currently ranked just 10th in the hunt for the AFC playoffs and a lowly 22nd in overall offensive DVOA. Over the past three games in which the Patriots nearly went 3-0 SU, Belichick has managed to salvage something from the offense: Namely, that Cam Newton needs to let Damien Harris pound the ball: Over the current 2-1 SU/ATS run, the Pats have averaged 170 passing yards per game against 173.33 rushing yards – and with Newton’s game-ending fumble against Buffalo in week 8 representing the sole turnover in the three games.
Against this attack, Houston “boasts” the league’s worst defense in rushing DVOA, rushing attempts, rushing yardage, tackles for a loss … you get the idea. NFLbets wouldn’t be surprised to see Newton go for fewer than 10 pass attempts while Harris goes for 250 yards. Take the New England Patriots -2½ at Houston.
After a Chiefs bye week and 11 or so defensive players going without practice, the Raiders feel like a team of destiny in this AFC West matchup – and that destiny is to be pummeled.
NFLbets admits that the Raiders have been generally impressive in 2020 thus far, getting out to a 6-3 SU/ATS record while showing the capability of winning with variance: Three weeks after running up 40 at Kansas City, Las Vegas went won a 16-6 against the Cleveland Browns and the weather. Fair enough but geez, is anyone paying attention to the defending champions?
All the Chiefs have done in 2020 is team their again no. 1 passing offense with the revelation of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and an awakening defense that’s held three of its past four opponents to 17 or fewer points – easily little enough for Patrick Mahomes to answer to. O and by the way, they’re 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS.
Finally, NFLbets admits we’re going a bit coach-centric this week, but there’s no denying KC HC Andy Reid’s success in preparing after a bye: His teams are a ridiculous 25-5 SU/20-10 ATS after a week off; what kind of a chance does an unevenly (at least)-prepped, bottom-5 defense have? We think not much. Take the Kansas City Chiefs -7½ at Las Vegas.
–written by Os Davis
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