Like many of you, NFLbets can’t help thinking of Super Bowl LIII whenever the dread New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams matchup comes down the pike. And as much as we eschew history when betting week-to-week, we may have to fall back on a championship game gone nearly two years hence because Thursday Night Football has been about as illogical as everything else in the Covid-ravaged 2020 NFL season.
The lines for week 14’s TNF currently stand at
In 12 Thursday games in 2020, home teams have been even more pitiful ATS than generally, at an incredibly bad at 5-7 SU/3-9 ATS; home favorites are much better at 4-4 SU/2-6 ATS. Favorites have a more expected mark at 6-6 SU/5-7 ATS. O, and homers are on a 1-5 SU/ATS “run.”
The over/under in some ways appears more representative of NFL Football As We Know It, with overs having hit in 7 of the 12 games – but while the league tends to lower-scoring games in the final third of the season, Thursday games have gone over in 4 of the last 5.
Initially, the thought was to cover the Patriots plus the points in addition to the under; however, bettors have apparently come to similar conclusions, as the Patriots have shed 1-1½ points from that handicap since lines opened on Sunday night – and what sharp in their right mind goes with the flow of guppies betting?
That low 44½ points as well as the under’s Thursday winning streak gives NFLbets pause, but we’ve got two words to ease the nerves about this bet: Jared Goff. How the Rams remain an 8-4 time while “boasting” an offense that’s bottom-10 in turnovers, interceptions, tackles for a loss and time of possession?
Goff additionally ranks dead last among qualifying QBs in QB rating under pressure. Weak pass rush aside, you’ve got to believe Bill Belichick will exploit Goff’s poor play in the area, particularly with center Brian Allen to play hurt if at all. Heck, with an all-star secondary like the Patriots’, Belichick might simply be willing to dump receivers deep all night and let the Rams quarterback use his less-than-adequate improv skills.
But Belichick’s got a whole other cold fish to fry, i.e. Cam Newton’s missing arm strength: In the past two games, Newton has managed just 153 passing yards combined with one passing TD against three interceptions and four sacks – and in both games ran as often or more as he completed a pass. Gee, guess there’s a reason the Patriots rank no. 3 in time of possession and top-10 in both 3rd-down and 4th-down conversion rate.
Belichick will have to break out his best playcalling against the monstrous Rams defense just to stay competitive, though. Despite handing out a 45-0 beatdown to the “Los Angeles” Chargers, the Pats have topped 23 points in a game just twice since the week 5 bye. On the other hand, on their current 4-4 SU run, six times has the final score been within 7 points either way, including against offenses (likesay, Buffalo, Seattle and Arizona) well scarier than the Rmas’ on anything less than a perfect day from Goff.
And you saw what he did in that Super Bowl...
Consider taking Belichick, Newton & Co. on 6-point teasers if you must, but NFLbets is going to wager on low-scoring battle of wills. We’re saying take the under on an O/U of 44½ points.
–written by Os Davis
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