Five picks ATS for your NFL week 1 Point Spread Pick ‘Em card

Thursday, 09 September 2021 16:49 EST

As NFLbets has ranted before, nothing good usually comes from betting week 1 in any NFL betting season. Then we get signed up for one of these point spread pick ‘em contests in which we’re obligated to pick *five* games weekly with (usually inflated) ’spreads. Twist NFLbets’ arm, why don’tcha?

The following are the picks on NFLbets’ ticket for week 1 of Point Spread Pick ‘Em…

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 vs Dallas Cowboys
NFLbets detailed our thinking on Cowboys +7½ elsewhere on this site. Suffice to say that, since posting ot that piece, the Covid reserve list of “America’s Team” has grown to include more names than at any point during the 2020 season. Nine points is well more than we’d wager in a normal situation in this game, but a double-digit win by the Bucs is certainly believable.

• Atlanta Falcons -3 vs Philadelphia Eagles
NFLbets isn’t sure whether this line is about underestimating the Falcons, overestimating the Eagles or sheer bafflement at how either team will look when hitting mid-season coherence We get the feeling that Eagles backers wil be lamenting their fortunes by early in the third quarter. After all, wouldn’t you take the established quarterback with a potential top TE over, let’s face it, a rebuilding team quarterbacked by a dude with Alabama pedigree and little more…?

• New England Patriots -3 vs Miami Dolphins
Here’s a line with about as much WTFery as that of the Eagles-Falcons game. Fair enough, the typical NFL observer does not want to face the possibility of another postseason run by the Patriots – but this is where the bettor’s emotional distance can prove profitable. And if young Mac Jones, old Bill Belichick and an apparently stellar defense are good for 11 or more wins this season, this is the sort of game that goes in the W column – and probably by more than 3 points…

• Denver Broncos -3 at New York Giants
NFLbets has zero faith in the 2021 New York Giants, one of four likely utter washouts devoted to rebuilding and about the only one who will admit it. Teddy Bridgewater may not be the most exciting switch at quarterback but is certainly skilled enough to lead the Broncos offense to a few scores in this game. And a few scores may be enough against one of the league’s worst offensive lines; the smart bet in this game is on the under…

• Los Angeles Rams -7.5 vs Chicago Bears
7½ points is a bit high – most sportsbooks have the Rams giving 6½ -- but Rams defense vs Bears offense is one of week 1’s bigger mismatches. Beyond this is Sean McVay, armed with Matt Stafford and thus about 62% more p;laybook than with Jared Goff. The Rams might score more points than any team this week and NFLbets has no fear these Bears can keep pace…

–written by Os Davis

Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.