Yesterday NFLbets confidently asserted that our favorite bet for Super Bowl LV is the over, despite the quite high 56½-point offering. In fact, just once has the over been higher at Super Bowl kickoff time: For Super Bowl LI between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots.
Nevertheless we’re sticking to our over bet if only for the sake of cheering for scoring. As much fun as betting on the under can be, a 13-3 Super Bowl or even a jittery first half ending in 10-10 usually makes for a bummer of a Super Bowl unless you’re talking about two killer defenses, which neither the Tampa Bay Buccaneers nor Kansas City Chiefs truly bring to this game.
So NFLbets is expecting touchdowns, many touchdowns indeed – we’re looking for so many TDs that we’re concentrating our player proposition betting on “Anytime Touchdown” props. The best thing about these bets is that they’re utterly independent of pointspread and money line betting; in our case, it doesn’t matter much who wins (remember, you can tease both teams with either over or under and have both teams getting points: The Chiefs go to +2½ or +3 and the Bucs to +9 or +9½.
Who will score touchdowns in Super Bowl LV? NFLbets likes…
In the last 10 games, Kelce’s averaging 8.6 receptions and 112.4 yards per to go with 9 TDs; against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game, the TE put on a crazy show with 13 catches on 15 targets for 118 yards and 2 TDs – while drawing double coverage on most plays. Kelce is enjoying a run at TE that perhaps no one other than possibly, well … Rob Gronkowski has ever pulled off. The Buccaneers statistically are reasonably decent against TEs at 12th overall in fantasy points surrendered and Kelce turned in an average performance – for him – against Tampa Bay in week 12 with eight catches for 80 yards, but the return of Sammy Watkins opens up the deep ball opportunities, good news for Kelce as well as…
As fantastic as Hill has been in 2020, he enjoyed a career day in the week 12 game with 13 receptions for an incredible 269 yards and 3 TDs, the latter as many as the Buccaneers entire offense managed in the game. We absolutely cannot expect Hill to produce anything like that – half as many yards plus 1 touchdown would be impressive enough in a ’Bowl – but Hill went for 172 yards against Buffalo when Kelce and he were essentially the sole options against a top-10 passing defense. With Watkins back, the Bucs D is forced to chose their poison, and Tyreek has looked deadly in two playoff games thus far.
For a guy who appears untacklable at times, Fourneette hasn’t exactly blown stat junkies’ minds in his first season with Tampa Bay. He’s topped 100 total yards just thrice this season (albeit in two of the past three games), but NFLbets likes Fournette to score here for three reasons: Sheer volume of carries, i.e. he’s had 12 or more carries in four of the past six games; his 6 TDs in the past six games; and, most compellingly, the Kansas City D’s league-worst performance in the red zone. How difficult is it to imagine a scenario in which Brady benefits from a questionable pass-interference call in the end zone, followed by a 1-yard plunge by Fournette? Right.
In weeks 6 through 16 in his reunification with Brady, Gronkowski was good for 3 catches on just under 6 targets per game with 7 TDs to boot. In the past four games, however, he’s totaled just 4 catches. So why does NFLbets like this bet so much? Here’s the theory: At this point in his career, Cameron Brate is a well better receiving TE but few still block as well as Gronk. In the NFC Championship game, he played four snaps, threw three killer blocks and caught one key pass for 29 yards. We believe that there is a special part of the playbook earmarked for Gronkowski and that Brady will be looking for the safety valve, possibly early and probably late. After all, the man was Brady’s best receiver – with 106 yards on 8 receptions – the last time these teams met…
–Os Davis
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