“Pick Five” NFL Betting Contest, week 4 – Time to bet on regression (mostly)

It’s tough not to get cynical about these “Pick Five” NFL betting contests: In the real world, NFLbets turns a profit just about every week but can’t seem to manage nailing more than two on the weekly pick sheet. Ah well, this is one $300,000 we won’t be winning…

For what it’s worth, then, here’s what NFLbets is looking at in week 4.

• Minnesota Vikings -2½ vs New Orleans Saints. About the only thing better than firing up the coffee and watching the extra-early London game is fading the public and making winning bets. To find out how, click here.
• Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons. No, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE Myles Garrett and OT Joe Haeg won’t play. Yes, Cleveland as of Friday has 10 other players who are questionable. Yes, Atlanta at 1-2 SU/3-0 ATS has exceeded expectations (on paper). And with Cordarrelle Paterson on the perhaps-injured list for the Falcons, NFLbets’ll fade that 3-0 giving just one point, home or away. The only problem with this pick is that it’s the proverbial “too easy…”
• Jacksonville Jaguars +6½ at Philadelphia Eagles. NFLbets is probably a bit too high on the Jags, but we also believe that the Dolphins’ loss to the Bengals – injury to starting QB aside – is representative of parity in the NFL in 2022. The Eagles are the last undefeated team in the NFL; that ends this week. This game represents the last difficult game for quite a few weeks for the Eagles and looking back, even a Jaguars SU win might seem logical within Philly’s 14-3 season.
• Las Vegas Raiders -2½ vs Denver Broncos. Again, we’re assuming regression on the part of the Raiders, but here upward. The Broncos have overall been a stunning doughnut of a team while the Raiders have at least one freakish SU loss, i.e. Arizona’s insane OT backdoor over and point spread cover in week 2, to self-chastise about already. Plus, consider this: Vegas stands at 0-3 SU/ATS; Denver’s 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS. Are the Raiders really two wins worse than the Broncos? Regression, dude.
• Los Angeles Rams +2 at San Francisco 49ers. In Sean McVay’s time as head coach, the Rams are just 4-6 SU/3-7 ATS against the Niners. With LT Trent Williams out and Garoppolo truly bottoming out to lose his teammates’ confidence, this is McVay’s best chance yet to even out those numbers a bit. And as a bettor, might as well take the 2 points to boot.

– written by Os Davis