Bears at Patriots on MNF – Point spread, over/under, picks and bets

23 October 2022

NFLbets wouldn’t normally say be reaching for descriptors of “mismatch” in a game between 4-2 SU/3-2-1 ATS and 3-3 SU/2-3-1 ATS teams, but we are definitely on red alert for a blowout in this week’s Monday Night Football and its line of

Chicago Bears +9 at New England Patriots, 40½ points

On the macro level, the high point spread has been a fair equalizer this season: In the nine games that kicked off with a point spread of 9 points or higher, the underdog is a predictable 1-8 SU but 5-4 ATS. Interestingly, both the Bears and Patriots have already been big underdogs at the Green Bay Packers: New England covered at +9½, the Bears lost with +10.

But football doesn’t take place on a macro level, and the truth is that on the micro, the Patriots are looking like one of the league’s hottest teams. In the two games following the aforementioned loss at Green Bay, the Patriots overwhelmed opponent, 67-15, including a shutout against what had been the NFL’s highest-scoring team in the Detroit Lions. And in the past three games, the Pats offense has surrendered a mere three turnovers for a TO differential of +5 for the team.

These Patriots are facing off against a Bears’ offense which is about as one-dimensional as possible in high-level football. With the second-least points scored, the Bears are naturally dead last in passing TDs and yardage as well as bottom-5 in most other important passing stats. Diversity in the running game is seriously lacking, however: Khalil Herbert, David Montgomery and Justin Fields have combined for a whopping 179 of the team’s second-high 197 attempts. In fact, if you include the 16 targets to Herbert and Montgomery, these three are responsible for just under 62% of touches.

Now how do you think Belichick, renowned for neutralizing the opposition’s main offensive weapon, going to gameplan for the most predictable offense since Jeff Fisher was coaching the St. Louis Rams? Exactly – the Bears should be hard pressed to score a TD, and the Patriots just might be looking at their second shutout in three weeks. Take the New England Patriots -9 vs Chicago and take the under on an O/U of 40½.

– written by Os Davis